Luca Paolini

High gas prices & mortgage rates are US election killers.
Since 1990, no incumbent party has won an #election with the average of the two above 5. Today: 6+.
Voters feel the price level. Wall Street watches its rate of change (#inflation). @PictetAM @NKniazhevich #multiasset

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the level of #bond yields and the shape of the US yield curve are perfectly aligned with fundamentals. Keep it simple: bond yields will rise further only if nominal growth will accelerate from here. In any case US TIPS at 3% are very attractive for long-term investors! @PictetAM #multiasset

#Covid-19 (inflation), Chat GPT (#AI boom) and #Trump II (tariffs) are behind the K-shaped economy - booming markets, depressed consumers. Unsustainable in the long-term, but still manageable in the short-term. As long as investors think #inflation will be under control. @PictetAM #multiasset

Our investment outlook in Vienna 😊👍 @PictetAM #multiasset

Unbridled #AI. Free markets. Full #democracy. The impossible trinity of the next decade? AI concentrates power. Capital buys it. Democracy distributes it. You can only get two.
More on this in our upcoming #SecularOutlook @PictetAM @johnauthers