The Idea Farm

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@TheIdeaFarm

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theideafarm.com Joined August 2012

1.6K Following 9.2K Followers 4.5K Posts

Latest posts 5

The Idea Farm @TheIdeaFarm 5h

"I've been doing this job about 44 or 45 years now. There's always a fantastic narrative which wraps around the bubble of optimism. The key to what keeps these things going, or what breaks it, is the interest rate cycle and liquidity." - @albertedwards99

1:59

Meb Faber Verified account @MebFaber 3d

So excited to hang with the great @albertedwards99, global strategist at @SocieteGenerale, who has spent 44 years on the sell side. We get into:

• Why the Fed may need 200 basis points of hikes, not two or three
• Why US 10 year yields could reach 10%
• Why the S&P could drop 50 to 60% and trade at 6x forward earnings
• The return of greedflation and how corporates could kill the goose that laid the golden egg
•The total factor productivity chart that reminds him of Thailand and Malaysia in the mid 1990s
• The China credit impulse signal that almost nobody is watching

View quoted post on X

The Idea Farm @TheIdeaFarm 9h

📊 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 📊

Markov Processes International estimates that incremental SpaceX exposure drove more than 10 percentage points of Harvard’s 27.1% endowment return. The analysis also compares the effect across Stanford, Penn, Brown and MIT.

@MarkovMPI

theideafarm.com/portfolio-mana…

The Idea Farm @TheIdeaFarm 23h

SocGen's @albertedwards99 on the China credit impulse:

"China is the one where people don't appreciate just what a mess the fiscal situation is. It is as bad as the US. China goes off to infinity far, far quicker, and their demographics are awful."

"The one thing which concerns me and which [eople aren't looking at is the China credit impulse. It's the change in the growth in credit, which is key. And the China impulse has collapsed over the last year."

2:07

Meb Faber Verified account @MebFaber 3d

So excited to hang with the great @albertedwards99, global strategist at @SocieteGenerale, who has spent 44 years on the sell side. We get into:

• Why the Fed may need 200 basis points of hikes, not two or three
• Why US 10 year yields could reach 10%
• Why the S&P could drop 50 to 60% and trade at 6x forward earnings
• The return of greedflation and how corporates could kill the goose that laid the golden egg
•The total factor productivity chart that reminds him of Thailand and Malaysia in the mid 1990s
• The China credit impulse signal that almost nobody is watching

View quoted post on X

The Idea Farm @TheIdeaFarm 1d

BofA: The era of hyperscaler buybacks is over.

ht @Ritholtz

The Idea Farm @TheIdeaFarm 1d

"In a couple of cycles' time, we're going to be at 10% US 10-year yields. What do you think the S&P forward P/E would be at that time? Probably more like 6, I imagine, rather than 19 now."

- @albertedwards99

2:13

Meb Faber Verified account @MebFaber 3d

So excited to hang with the great @albertedwards99, global strategist at @SocieteGenerale, who has spent 44 years on the sell side. We get into:

• Why the Fed may need 200 basis points of hikes, not two or three
• Why US 10 year yields could reach 10%
• Why the S&P could drop 50 to 60% and trade at 6x forward earnings
• The return of greedflation and how corporates could kill the goose that laid the golden egg
•The total factor productivity chart that reminds him of Thailand and Malaysia in the mid 1990s
• The China credit impulse signal that almost nobody is watching

View quoted post on X