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@0xMadaba

Crypto research with a Corporate Finance/M&A background. Protocol revenue, valuations, token value accrual. DMs open
madaba.io Joined November 2021
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Madaba Verified account @0xMadaba
I ranked 16 revenue-generating crypto protocols using an index that puts equal weight on business performance and token economics

Pump comes out on top with 76 points. Hyperliquid has the strongest business of all 16 and comes in at #2

- Selection: $10M+ annualized revenue and a token above $150M market cap
- $PUMP is #1: $664M annualized revenue at 2.5x market cap / revenue, the lowest multiple of all 16
- $HYPE has the strongest business (79) and the most revenue ($871M), but trades at 80x FDV / revenue. My model uses 9% unlocks, based on what the team actually received in the last 12 months. Unlock trackers use 54%, which would drop it to #5
- $AERO is #3 at 6.7x. 99% of revenue went to lockers and stakers, but new supply (24% a year) more than offsets that payout (15% of market cap)
- $LIT has the third-best business (69) but the lowest token terms (41): unlocks over the next 12 months equal 61% of today's circulating supply
- $CAKE and $SKY are the opposite: token terms of 77 and 72 on a business score around 50
- $RAY (-40%), $CAKE (-35%), $MET (-32%), $JUP (-23%) and $UNI (-19%) earned less per day over the last 30 days than in the 90 days before. Their current run rate is below the revenue in the table
- Only 6 of 16 have a net holder yield clearly above zero, meaning burns, buybacks and staker payouts outweigh new supply: $RAY, $CAKE, $SKY, $JUP, $SYRUP and $PUMP
- $VVV (84x) and $AAVE (32x) are at the bottom. Most of Venice's revenue settles offchain, so the model only includes what reaches the token. If more of it flows onchain, VVV moves up. AAVE paused buybacks in April after the rsETH exploit. "Aavenomics 3.0" should bring them back, but it isn't live yet

Ranks 4 to 13 are only 8 points apart, so I wouldn't read much into #5 vs #9. Pump, Hyperliquid and Aerodrome stay in the top 5 in at least 95% of 5,000 random weightings

How the score works:
- Business (50%): revenue momentum (last 30 days vs the 90 days before), revenue trend (last 90 days vs the 90 before) and revenue size (the lower of the last 12 months and the annualized last 90 days, so one strong quarter doesn't inflate size)
- Token terms (50%): market cap / revenue, unlocks over the next 12 months, float and the share of revenue that goes to holders

Takeaways from the table:
- A strong business doesn't automatically reach the token. Only Pump scores 70+ on both sides. Without its unlocks LIT would be #4 instead of #13
- High payouts don't guarantee positive holder economics. HYPE, UNI, VVV, AERO and CRV all send 95%+ of revenue to holders, yet none has a net holder yield clearly above zero once new supply is factored in
- Cheap alone isn't enough. MET (3.4x) and LDO (7.0x) are among the four cheapest but only rank #8 and #7: MET has 15% unlocks, LDO returns nothing to holders on a recurring basis

The table is the data. The score is my own weighting on top of it and leaves out things like sentiment or regulation. Not investment advice. Full methodology and how each token was treated in the replies
7 replies 18 reposts 80 likes 7K views View on X
Madaba Verified account @0xMadaba
Stablecoin supply is down $13.2B this year, but Ethereum mainnet alone lost $29.8B. All other chains together gained $16.6B

Ethereum mainnet's share of all stablecoins fell from 54.1% to 46.2% this year. Tron's rose from 27.0% to 32.4%, and no other chain holds more than 5% now

Last 30 days:
- Supply fell $14.9B, the biggest 30-day drop since the Luna collapse in May 2022
- $11.0B of that came off Ethereum mainnet, its biggest 30-day drop in dollars on record
- Ethereum holds 46% of all stablecoins but took 74% of the drop

Ethereum mainnet this year:
- Down $20.7B before the Binance hack on Oct 29, $9.1B more since
- $14.3B of the drop came in June and July
- USDT: down $20.4B on Ethereum but only $11.4B overall. On all other chains it grew $9.0B, with Tron alone up $11.2B
- USDC: down $6.5B on Ethereum and $5.4B overall

All other chains this year, with their share of all stablecoins:
- Tron +$11.9B, 27.0% to 32.4%
- Hyperliquid +$1.7B, 1.6% to 2.2%
- BNB Chain +$0.7B, 4.4% to 4.9%
- Base +$0.7B, 1.5% to 1.8%
- Solana -$0.1B, 4.7% to 4.9%
- X Layer and Arc from near zero to $1.4B each, Robinhood Chain to $1.0B

Until Oct 6 the other chains were still growing. Since then they are down $4.8B, their biggest pullback this year
1 replies 4 reposts 10 likes 232 views View on X
Madaba Verified account @0xMadaba
Top 10 protocols by revenue on Robinhood Chain (last 30 days vs the 30 before)

- Total revenue: $48.1M → $16.2M (−66%)
- Last 7 days: $2.6M, about $11M on a 30-day basis
- Last week Lighter ($445K) and Arcus ($327K) earned more than STANDARD ($312K), the #1 over 30 days

STANDARD (@standard_rsv): $6.6M → $2.8M (−57%)
Lighter (@Lighter_xyz): $2.0M → $2.1M (+3%)
Arcus (@arcus_xyz): $1.3M → $1.7M (+29%)
Pons (@ponsdotfamily): $8.1M → $1.4M (−83%)
Uniswap (@Uniswap): $3.7M → $1.4M (−63%)
GMGN (@gmgnai): $6.6M → $974K (−85%)
fomo (@fomo): $5.0M → $782K (−84%)
Fables (@fablesfi): $499K (revenue tracked since Oct 20)
SLVR (@S_L_V_R_FUN): $950K → $349K (−63%)

Robinhood itself earned $1.1M from its chain over the last 30 days, through the gas fees its sequencer collects. In the 30 days before, it was $4.3M (−75%)

Pons, GMGN and fomo made 41% of all revenue a month earlier and 19% now. Lighter and Arcus went from 7% to 23%
Madaba Verified account @0xMadaba
Hyperliquid once again shows it's where TradFi trades when Wall Street can't, after hours and before IPOs

Nvidia perps did $1.4B of volume between the Jensen Huang news and the next open. Anthropic's pre-IPO perps have already traded $1.8B, 2x what SpaceX traded before its IPO

The big TradFi moments on Hyperliquid this year:
- Oil, March and April: during the Iran war oil peaked at $2.1B a day on Hyperliquid. $3.2B traded on weekends, when the futures market was closed
- SpaceX, June: the pre-IPO perp was live a month before the listing. It did $1.4B on IPO day and peaked at $1.7B on Jun 16
- Bloomberg, October: the Terminal now shows Hyperliquid prices 24/7
- ICE, October: the NYSE owner invested in trade.xyz to bring its perps to the US, pending CFTC approval. Stan Druckenmiller invested too
- Nvidia, November: $2.1B on Nov 12, almost 6x its best day before November. The night before, $NVDA out-traded BTC from the close to 2am ET ($843M vs $724M)

Anthropic next week:
- The trade.xyz perp trades at $103 per share, 32% above the top of the $70-78 IPO range. Fully diluted that's about $1.8T vs $1.4T
- Open interest across Hyperliquid's Anthropic markets went from $81M to $312M in two weeks, 3.9x
- Volume is speeding up too: $664M of the $1.8B came in the last 7 days, with a record $260M on Nov 10
- Pricing is expected on Nov 18, the first trading day on Nov 19

SpaceX was the big test for this kind of price discovery. On the morning of its IPO, the Hyperliquid perp priced SpaceX at around $175 per share. The IPO price was $135, the stock opened at $150 and ended its first day at $161. The perp was 9% too high, but closer to the first-day close than the IPO price

Anthropic's perp now sits 32% above its IPO range, about the same gap SpaceX had. The final IPO price can still come in above the range

HIP-3 markets like these now hold 36% of Hyperliquid's open interest
Madaba Verified account @0xMadaba
Robinhood Chain Weekly (Nov 6 to Nov 12)

DEX volume fell 13% to $3.9B and revenue 21% to $2.6M, its lowest since July. Both have now dropped nine weeks in a row. Robinhood crypto chief Johann Kerbrat calls swings in activity "just cycles" and wants more utility for Stock Tokens

This week in numbers
- DEX volume: $3.9B (−13% vs the week before)
- Revenue: $2.6M (−21%)
- TVL: $1.03B (−2%)
- Stablecoins: $1.01B (flat)
- Stock Tokens: $158M (−2%)

Who earned the revenue
- Lighter (@Lighter_xyz): $445K (−10%)
- Arcus (@arcus_xyz): $327K (−21%)
- STANDARD (@standard_rsv): $312K (−34%)
- Uniswap (@Uniswap): $240K (−25%)
- Pons (@ponsdotfamily): $182K (−25%)
- Robinhood itself, through the sequencer: $188K (−24%)

The two perps apps Lighter and Arcus now make 30% of all revenue, up from 28% the week before. Since the peak week in September, DEX volume is down 76% and revenue 95%

From Robinhood
- Johann Kerbrat (SVP & GM Crypto) posted a clip on what's next for the chain: more utility, more integrations with the Robinhood app and more use cases for Stock Tokens, "from perps to options". On swings in activity: "it's just cycles"
- Robinhood's crypto account interacted with four projects this week: @CircuitAI, @longbowlend, @Moshdottrade and @RamsesExchange
- New asset page listings: @orbiodotso (ORBIO) and @thinkingcatRH (HMM)
- Robinhood congratulated the Founder House Singapore winners, announced by @arbitrum on Nov 2: nine teams share $300K in prizes and grants, among them @fablesfi, @stockripx and @hyperloop_fi_

New on the chain
- Circuit: an agent that provides liquidity for Stock Tokens on Metric. Each day it funds the three pools with the highest fees
- Longbow Autopilot: AI agents can borrow against Stock Tokens and manage their own positions
- Narthex: an orchestrator for swarms of AI agents, built by Spiral Stake and powered by Orbio
- @priors_trade: one board for all 25,600+ AI agents on the chain. 492 have a credit record so far, and agents without one can now ask backers for a line
- Arcus: new stock perps on CRBS, WDC and NFLX, plus XPL and ARB. Arcus says $1.49B of its $2.0B weekly volume came from RWA markets
- Pons: over 1,000,000 tokens launched so far, and 33% of the PONS supply is now burned
- Arcus also had an exploit on Nov 9. $2.2M was withdrawn through an accounting bug. Arcus covered it from its own treasury and says no user balances were affected

A weak week across the board. Part of it is the comparison: the week before included Nov 4 and 5, the two busiest days of the last two weeks. TVL held up better than volume: 58% of it sits in Morpho, which grew 4%, while liquidity on Uniswap fell 12%

Kerbrat's list runs "from perps to options". Perps are the chain's strongest business, with $173M deposited at Lighter and Arcus and 30% of all revenue. Options have barely started: the seven options apps DefiLlama tracks on the chain hold less than $130K combined and traded $108K in notional volume this week. Stock Tokens stand at $158M, almost five times the level of three months ago, but they have barely grown in the last month

New edition every Friday