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BlackRock filed for a bitcoin ETF built to limit $BTC losses instead of tracking it outright. PBIT would hold call spreads on $IBIT with about a 10% floor before fees, upside capped. The catch: the fee is still blank, and fees eat into that floor.

21rates.com/news/blackrock…

5% is back. The US government just paid 5.02% to borrow for ten years, and every loan in America is priced off that number. 🧵

On Tuesday, the Treasury sold $42 billion of 10-year notes at a high yield of 5.02%. The same day, hot inflation data pushed the 10-year yield to roughly 5% in the open market.

Here is what happened, and what it means for anyone who borrows, lends or holds credit.

THE TRIGGER: INFLATION RAN HOT AGAIN
October CPI, released Tuesday:
• Headline: +0.4% month over month (expected +0.3%)
• Core: +0.3% (expected +0.2%)
• Energy: +0.7%, shelter: +0.3%, food: +0.5%
• Used cars: -1.2%

Core inflation has now printed 0.3% three months in a row.

THE REACTION: YIELDS JUMPED ACROSS THE CURVE
Approximate levels in the late-session snapshot:
• 2-year: 4.73% (up about 18 basis points, its biggest one-day jump this year)
• 5-year: 4.81%
• 10-year: 4.99%, after briefly trading above 5%
• 30-year: 5.35%

THE AUCTION: DEMAND WAS SOFTER
$42 billion of 10-year notes sold at 5.02%, about 1 basis point above where the notes traded before the sale. That "tail" means buyers asked for a small concession.
• Bid-to-cover: 2.46, versus 2.77 in October and a recent average near 2.60
• Indirect bidders (foreign buyers and funds bidding through intermediaries): 61.2%, down sharply from 80.3% in October
• Direct bidders: 29%, versus a recent average near 16%
• Primary dealers: 9.8%, up from 2.5% in October

Direct demand held up. But the foreign and indirect side stepped back, and dealers had to absorb more.

THE FED ANGLE
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. The next meeting is December 8-9. Market pricing now points strongly to another 25 basis point hike in December, with a smaller chance of 50.

WHY THE 10-YEAR MATTERS FOR EVERYONE
The 10-year Treasury yield is the benchmark for long-term borrowing. When it moves, the pricing of mortgages and many corporate and consumer loans tends to move with it. The yield on government debt acts as the floor: a borrower with more risk than the Treasury has to pay more than 5%.

The latest weekly average 30-year mortgage rate from Freddie Mac was 7.18% (Nov 5), up from 6.22% a year ago. The next reading comes out Thursday.

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
• Thursday: a $25 billion 30-year bond auction. After a soft 10-year sale, the market will study the demand closely
• Whether the 10-year stays above or near 5%
• Mortgage rates in the next Freddie Mac survey
• December rate hike pricing as new data arrives

THE TAKEAWAY
A 5% risk-free rate resets how every borrower, lender and saver thinks about return. Higher base rates raise the bar for every credit product built on top of them.

New on 21Rates Bitcoin Company Directory: @NEOWIZ_Official, @KeystoneWallet, and @Greenidge_GREE.

Mapping the Bitcoin economy, one company at a time.

21Rates.com/companies

New on 21Rates Bitcoin Company Directory: @mangrove_ai, @ANAPnet, and @TMTGcorp.

Mapping the Bitcoin economy, one company at a time.

21Rates.com/companies

Home bitcoin mining used to mean jet engine noise. Dane from Hashrate House says his first S19s ran at 80 decibels.

His systems now heat the house and the hot water at under 30 decibels, he says. Heat you were paying for anyway.

21rates.com/podcast/stop-p…