@aahan_prometheus

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@AahanPrometheus

Founder @prometheusmacro

prometheus-macro.com Joined December 2024

773 Following 8.4K Followers 12K Posts

Latest posts 5

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@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus Dec 3, 2024

Alright, let’s do this twitter thing.

1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world…

@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus 19h

Amazing how much serious macro we can get done when we have someone policing us

Was a blast. Thanks to @excessreturnpod for having us and @CultishCreative for the 🔥 intros

Bob Elliott Verified account @BobEUnlimited 19h

The week @CultishCreative turned the tables on @AahanPrometheus and I for the Excess Returns pod. Talked through some little longer-term perspective on the economy and markets than our weekly show, and squeezed in a little fun along the way. Enjoy!

youtu.be/Cp5xnh4COXg?si…
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@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus 19h

Enjoying this one with @profplum99 and my friends @excessreturnpod

Lots of food for thought on thinking about passive investing as a factor

Great job fellas!

youtu.be/354vZMoIvlE?si…

www.youtube.com Stocks Are Falling. The Economy Is Weakening. So Why Doesn’t Mike... Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices...

@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus 20h

We have over 200 charts on this topic.

With >50 pages of internal work. Linkages, event studies, backtests

How much do you think is the right amount to publish?

Prometheus Research Verified account @prometheusmacro 20h

How does a hiking cycle become a bear market?

Bears follows a reliable path. Policy weighs on markets, asset growth slows, household dissaving & business investment stop supporting profits, and unemployment rises.

We’re only in step 2.

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@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus 20h

People forget Bob actually did the dooming thing the proper way— when there was actually something to doom about on a scale nobody had seen before

Might have to do a special Macro Talk episode just talking through that whole episode someday for the nerds (me)

UnstructuredCap Verified account @UnstructuredCap 3d

Ex-Bridgewater Bob Elliot: “The debt environment of the economy has totally changed.”

“All of the banks went from 30x levered to 8x today, radically different. A lot of the credit dynamics basically has now extended unlevered basis or a lower leverage basis.”

“When SVB blew up, I said there will be no meaningful losses in commercial real estate; losses on commercial real estate have been 20-30 bps. The reason is because all those loans are worth 50 LTV.”

“In a world of 50 LTV loans, it's very hard to have a meaningful credit event. We've stopped using the banks in terms of credit providers, we've re-routed credit from unlevered entities like pension funds into the credit system.”

“Almost all credit in the system can have a 50% loss and everyone's fine, no meaningful destruction.”

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