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@AdjacentMarkets

Event indexing and @AdjacentNews
adjacent.markets Joined July 2022
2 Following 1.5K Followers 327 Posts

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Adjacent @AdjacentMarkets
We are excited to launch MSRY, the Misery Implied Index, the first live, real-time version of the Misery Index.

Misery has been an economic indicator since the 1960s as a broad way of tracking the US economy by adding the unemployment and inflation rates together.

The economic index is printed once a month on a delayed schedule. Using prediction markets we have built a real-time and market-driven version.

Read more at press.adj.news/p/launching-th…
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Adjacent @AdjacentMarkets
Jensen out by year end odds jumped after a New York Times report that five people who worked at Nvidia said Huang had a second extramarital relationship, this time with a senior executive. Mid 64.5% on @Polymarket and mid 68.5% on @Kalshi before Jan 1, 2027, as of 5:45 PM ET.
Line chart of Jensen Huang year-end leave odds on Polymarket and Kalshi from Nov 8 to Nov 11, 2026, with news markers. As of 5:45 PM ET, mid 64.5% on Polymarket by Dec 31 and mid 68.5% on Kalshi before Jan 1, 2027.
Polymarket Verified account @Polymarket 10h
BREAKING: Jensen Huang departure odds soar after 5 former Nvidia employees allege he had a second extramarital affair, this time with a senior executive.

73% chance he's out by end of year.

🔗 polymarket.com/r/Jensen
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Adjacent @AdjacentMarkets
$TSLA delivery odds bounce back from Tuesday's low.

TSLADEL, the Tesla 2026 Deliveries Index, is at 745.1, up 42.2% from its 523.9 low Nov 10. The biggest jump came overnight, 662.7 to 731.1 at 1 AM ET.

Above 1.8M deliveries in 2026: 46.0%, from 37.5% a day ago
Above 1.85M: 16.0%, from 10.0%
Hourly line chart of TSLADEL, the Tesla 2026 deliveries index, from Oct 23 to Nov 11. It fell to a low of 523.9 at 6 AM ET Nov 10 and rebounded to 745.1 by 12:47 PM ET Nov 11. Base 1,000.
Cole Grinde Verified account @GrindeOptions 4d
Prediction that will come true:

In Q4 for $TSLA, they will deliver over 500,000+ vehicles making an all time record high delivery quarter for the company.
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Adjacent @AdjacentMarkets
Year end S&P odds are split between today's range and a close near the October high:

7,600 to 7,799.99 mid 23.5%
7,800 to 7,999.99 mid 23.5%

The S&P 500 was at 7,618.87 as of 11:50 AM ET.
Bar chart of Kalshi mid odds for the S&P 500 close on December 31, 2026. The 7,600 to 7,799.99 and 7,800 to 7,999.99 buckets are tied at 23.5 percent. The S&P 500 was at 7,618.87 as of 11:50 AM ET, with an October high of 7,844.52.
Michael McDonough Verified account @M_McDonough 17h
Some fun: When has the market looked like this before?

I took the current cross-asset regime — equities, rates, credit, FX, commodities and volatility — and compared it with historical 63-trading-day periods based on both the direction and magnitude of market moves.

The closest historical match to November 2026?

April 2005 — 81% similarity.

What I found especially interesting is that it passes the macro smell test as well. Both periods combine relatively strong growth, elevated inflation, restrictive/tightening conditions, a fairly flat positive yield curve and credit markets that are not signaling acute stress.

That does not mean 2026 = 2005. There are some very important differences, particularly around housing and equity valuations.

So I also looked at what happened after the closest historical regimes.

Across the closest analogues, the median S&P 500 path was:

+2.0% after 1 month
+5.7% after 3 months
+3.4% after 6 months
+11.6% after 12 months
But the individual paths vary enormously — which is really the point.

Historical analogues aren't forecasts. They are a way of asking: when markets have been pricing a similar combination of growth, inflation, rates, credit and risk before, what happened next?

Still experimenting with this, but I think there is something pretty interesting here.
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