Logan Armstrong

My NFL model goes 11 and 2 in week 1 of tracking and it's free
football.armchairlogan.workers.dev

Called the 6 and 0 Vikings losing in Detroit.

Please check it out

11 and 3 in my first week of tracking. 12 and 2 against the spread.
NFL Week 9 predictions are live. Still free.
football.armchairlogan.workers.dev

Please check it out

I spent months building an NFL model. Today I'm giving it away for free.

I used to work at Robinhood. I built this on nights and weekends. Every game, projected scores, and the data behind every pick.

Every pick gets graded in public, and every week I'll make it better.

Use it as a benchmark. Compare your own takes against it, check the matchup data, and see how its numbers hold up over the season.

First pick Thursday: Green Bay 26, Carolina 23. Final was 27 to 19.

Today it sees 3 games differently than Vegas:

Vikings lose by 6 in Detroit. Vegas says 3.
Broncos beat the Chiefs. Vegas has KC.
Jets beat the Raiders. Vegas has Vegas.

I'll grade all 3 tonight. Which one is it wrong about?

football.armchairlogan.workers.dev

My model has Green Bay winning by a field goal tonight.

NFL kickers have missed 3 field goals from 35 yards or closer all season. Green Bay's kicker has 2 of them.

I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models and grade every pick in public.

TNF: PANTHERS AT PACKERS

My model: Green Bay 26, Carolina 23
Vegas: Packers by 3.5

What decides it:
Green Bay is the only team that hasn't run for 100 yards in a game this year. Carolina gives up 5.2 yards a carry, worst in the NFL.
Bryce Young gets pressured more than any QB when teams rush 4 or fewer. Green Bay leads the NFL with 9 interceptions, and 7 came without a blitz.
Last year Carolina won 16 to 13 at Lambeau. Green Bay went 1 for 5 in the red zone.

THE PICK: GREEN BAY. If the kicker shows up.

Packers fans, does Smack make his kicks tonight? Reply with your final score. Closest one gets a shoutout when I grade it. Follow so you see if you won.

Josh Downs has zero touchdowns this season and just asked out of Indianapolis.
The Steelers want him anyway. The Chiefs might too.

I grade every NFL deadline trade like a deal, and this one I priced before it happens. I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing assets was the job.

THE ASSET
25 years old. 2023 third round pick.
26 catches, 307 yards, 0 TDs. Career low 56.5% catch rate.
Best season: 803 yards in 2024.
His contract ends after this year. He's a rental.
His response to the request: "I'm open to whatever."

THE BUYERS
Pittsburgh. Interested, per Jordan Schultz. Rodgers' offense ranks 20th in passing yards per game.
Kansas City. Rashee Rice is hurt and Tyquan Thornton is on IR. ESPN lists Downs as a fit.
Schultz says a deal isn't likely this week, but a trade is expected eventually.

THE COMPARABLE
In finance, you price an asset against similar ones. Jerry Jeudy is another receiver linked to the Chiefs. ESPN isn't sure even a 4th would get him, and the Browns aren't shopping him.
Downs has fewer yards, an expiring deal and a trade request. He's worth less.

MY PRICE: A 5TH
The Colts have no leverage. If a buyer pays a 4th or more, they get a C. A 5th or less, an A.

Steelers or Chiefs, where should he land?
Follow for the grade the day he moves.