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Baris Guzel
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Partner @BMWiVentures. Investing in software & industrial tech. Backed @xometry ($XMTR), @tekioncorp, @ridezum. Engineer & ex-tech inv banker. Views mine.
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Could AI fears create the funding crisis investors fear?
An equity sell-off can feed into wider credit spreads. Higher borrowing costs make debt-funded AI projects less attractive, worsening growth expectations and feeding another sell-off.
A potential AI debt spiral—not an inevitable one. The vulnerability is dependence on fresh capital…
An equity sell-off can feed into wider credit spreads. Higher borrowing costs make debt-funded AI projects less attractive, worsening growth expectations and feeding another sell-off.
A potential AI debt spiral—not an inevitable one. The vulnerability is dependence on fresh capital…
Alphabet lost ~$500B in one day, its worst since the 2004 IPO.
Search got the blame. The cash flow had the rest: -$9.1B FCF vs -$2.7B expected.
In June I called the $80B equity raise a pecking-order tell. I didn't call the day. I called the reason. Who climbs the ladder next?
Search got the blame. The cash flow had the rest: -$9.1B FCF vs -$2.7B expected.
In June I called the $80B equity raise a pecking-order tell. I didn't call the day. I called the reason. Who climbs the ladder next?
View quoted post on X
In June I argued Alphabet's $80B equity raise was a pecking-order tell: firms reach for equity when internal cash runs out…
Q3 just graded it. Free cash flow: negative $9.1B. Through nine months of 2026, Alphabet's free cash flow is below zero.
The same week, AAA-rated Microsoft sold its first US bonds since 2017. One company is stepping onto the debt rung. The other already climbed past it.
Which hyperscaler is next to reach for equity??
Q3 just graded it. Free cash flow: negative $9.1B. Through nine months of 2026, Alphabet's free cash flow is below zero.
The same week, AAA-rated Microsoft sold its first US bonds since 2017. One company is stepping onto the debt rung. The other already climbed past it.
Which hyperscaler is next to reach for equity??
In one year, Alphabet quadrupled its long-term debt, reached out to a 100-year bond, and STILL announced raising $80B in equity, the largest in US history.
A 1984 corporate finance paper explains why that should worry the whole market. 🧵View quoted post on X