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Inspired by @DrBitcoinM50862, I've been modelling what the SWC share price could look like under different scenarios, including different bitcoin prices, mNAVs, ATM issuance, book builds and MORE issuance.
Introducing the SWC Treasury Model thesmarterinvestmentguy.com/#treasury-model
Here's what the model projects for SWC after 24 months in 4 different scenarios.
🐻 Bear, a share price of £0.81
⚖️ Base, a share price of £3.61 and a £2.25bn market cap, FTSE 250 size
🐂 Bull, a share price of £13.29 and a £9.7bn market cap, FTSE 100 size (about the 51st biggest UK company)
🚀 Super bull, I'll let you find that one yourself.
I've tried to keep the scenarios conservative. For example, in the bull scenario bitcoin is at $200k, mNAV at 3.5× and amplification only 30%. (Apologies for being so bearish @80IQConviction)
The bit I find most interesting is the Monte Carlo section. It runs the model thousands of times with random bitcoin and mNAV paths to stress test it, showing what happens when bitcoin falls. It also shows the road to £10+ would be rocky. Even in the bull scenario, the median simulation has a −55% drawdown and 4 falls of more than 20%.
Have a play around. There's an option to share a link to your own scenario, so please share one if you think I've been too bearish!
Introducing the SWC Treasury Model thesmarterinvestmentguy.com/#treasury-model
Here's what the model projects for SWC after 24 months in 4 different scenarios.
🐻 Bear, a share price of £0.81
⚖️ Base, a share price of £3.61 and a £2.25bn market cap, FTSE 250 size
🐂 Bull, a share price of £13.29 and a £9.7bn market cap, FTSE 100 size (about the 51st biggest UK company)
🚀 Super bull, I'll let you find that one yourself.
I've tried to keep the scenarios conservative. For example, in the bull scenario bitcoin is at $200k, mNAV at 3.5× and amplification only 30%. (Apologies for being so bearish @80IQConviction)
The bit I find most interesting is the Monte Carlo section. It runs the model thousands of times with random bitcoin and mNAV paths to stress test it, showing what happens when bitcoin falls. It also shows the road to £10+ would be rocky. Even in the bull scenario, the median simulation has a −55% drawdown and 4 falls of more than 20%.
Have a play around. There's an option to share a link to your own scenario, so please share one if you think I've been too bearish!
