Chamath Palihapitiya

The All-In Podcast

@chamath

Social Capital
8090

God is in the details.

In the Arena research.socialcapital.com Joined April 2007

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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath Oct 2

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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath 15h

Correct. Specifically, odds will go up with every data center delay.

And to be clear, this isn’t a commentary on Ant or SpaceX but the mathematical reality if spot prices moves by 50%+ because of the lack of supply and a seller of energized compute has a 90 day termination clause.

Rohan Paul Verified account @rohanpaul_ai 22h

Chamath says that if data center supply tightens, SpaceX could end its compute deal with Anthropic on 90 days notice and bring it back at 2x to 3x the price, and Anthropic would have to take it.

"So, whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Ant could two to 3x and ANT would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price. It would also show all of the other hyperscalers that they are very far away from having economic yield that is optimized. And so then it forces them to consider should I be giving it to myself?

Should I be selling it to the other people? It then forces the Neoclouds to take all of this money that they've raised, whether it's debt or equity, and say, "I have two choices, which is to buy as much compute today as I can at whatever price it's available because the other path is assured destruction and bankruptcy for me because I am just out of the game."

And so, what do they do? They will take the last gasp and do whatever they have.

So all the game theory comes down to this one deal and whether Elon decides to rip it because if he rips it, watch out.

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Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath 16h

When I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I thought when unemployment was low, GDP was hi, household income rose, it meant everyone was winning.

Not true.

The American economy has decoupled the economic progress of asset owners from wage earners to such a degree that broad based measures of success are no longer reliable measures of progress.

This single issue of asset ownership vs progress of wage earners will be the defining issue in all future elections.

Other issues will get caught in the interpretation (price of eggs, Iran war, price of gas etc) but the candidate that realizes that those are downstream of asset vs wage earners and gets their messaging focused on it will win.

No amount of money spent in an election or gerrymandering will change this outcome.

That is what I learned on Nov3.

Chief Nerd Verified account @TheChiefNerd 1d

Chamath Says He Now Realizes the ‘Economic Reality in America is Broken’

“This was a complete and total repudiation about the state of the economy. The economy is broken.”

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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath 17h

I will be paying close attention…

Mr. Ping Verified account @MrPingChecks 1d

当全世界的聪明人都在为近 4 万亿美元市值灰飞烟灭捶胸顿足时，硅谷风投大佬 Chamath 却掏出放大镜，找到了一个真正决定 AI 巨头生死的命门。

这位硅谷老狐狸抛出了一个暴论：眼下整场 AI 博弈的胜负，全看一单买卖。他指的，正是马斯克的 SpaceX 和 Anthropic 签下的那份算力合同，里面藏着一个“双向 90 天随时解约”的条款。

这事还得从这周的政治海啸说起。美国中期选举共和党遭遇了水门事件以来最惨的溃败，连红了几十年的德州都翻蓝了。州长们听见“数据中心”四个字就像见了瘟神，因为选民们早就受够了：这些庞大的机房除了替科技巨头赚钱，留给当地人的只有昂贵的水电费和噪音。

各地要是真给新数据中心按下暂停键，算力供给立马就得卡脖子。

就在这个节骨眼，硅谷的阶级成分瞬间清晰了。手里有现成地盘和电力的微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊，外加马斯克的 SpaceX，成了紧俏的“房东”；而像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这种得急需算力来迭代大模型的实验室，说白了，只是群没有房产证的“租客”。

在 Chamath 看来，这直接把马斯克送上了牌桌的主位。

手握着庞大算力，一旦数据中心审批放缓导致算力紧缺，现货价格可能会翻倍甚至涨到三倍。如果现货暴涨让原有长约变成了亏本买卖，SpaceX 随时可能直接动用“提前 90 天解约”的条款撕毁老合同，把算力按现货价重新计价。

到那时候，急需算力续命的 Anthropic 除了当场滑跪、认下翻倍甚至三倍的高价，根本没有第二条路可走。

就在这两天的富达路演上，面对机构把 IPO 估值从 2 万亿美元狠砍到 1.2 万亿的“骨折价”，CEO 达里奥为了保住上市，硬是诚恳地向买方投资者连说了三次“谢谢”。现在就开始赔笑脸了，真等到马斯克拔电源那天，他们更是连谈判的筹码都没有。

更损的是，这一刀要是真捅下去，等于当场给其他“房东”上了一堂生动的现实主义扫盲课，启发它们重新盘算手里的算力到底是留给自己用，还是拿去放高价租。而那些“二房东”们，为了不被踢出局，只能咬碎后槽牙，不计代价地去抢购市面上残存的算力。

听到这儿，旁边的 Jason 赶紧踩了脚刹车。他反驳说，马斯克跟 OpenAI 的奥特曼确实仇深似海，但跟 Anthropic 团队的关系好得像蜜月期，而且 Anthropic 还是他未来搞太空数据中心的好搭档。就算现货涨上天，马斯克也未必会干出直接掀桌子按现货价宰客的事，大家坐下来谈个“中间价”才更像人话。

但 Chamath 显然不相信硅谷的塑料兄弟情：“这跟关系好不好无关，跟谁是好公司坏公司也无关。这就是一张算账的表格，表格会直接给出答案。”

在这场近 4 万亿美元灰飞烟灭的魔幻风暴里，所谓的科技宏大叙事，剥开来看依然是最朴素的包租公哲学：只要电表转得够快、现货涨得够狠，再美好的革命友谊，可能也熬不过一张 Excel 表格，和一纸短短 90 天的逐客令。

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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath 17h

Happy Diwali.

Namaste everyone. 🙏🏽