Yesterday I pitched my 4th prediction with the Oregon Blockchain Prediction Markets team 🦆
I went YES on Google having the #1 AI model on Text Arena at the end of November, at 74¢. That's +35% if it hits
Right now Gemini 4 Carbon is #1 at 1538 and Gemini 4 Argon is #2 at 1530. Anthropic's best model is sitting at 1513
The only real threat is Claude Fable 5.2, which dropped earlier this week and doesn't have a real score yet. Going from Fable 5 to 5.1, Anthropic gained about 16 points. If 5.2 makes the same jump, it lands around 1528 still being 10 points under Google
Polymarket gives Fable 5.2 a 63% shot at 1520
I went YES on Google having the #1 AI model on Text Arena at the end of November, at 74¢. That's +35% if it hits
Right now Gemini 4 Carbon is #1 at 1538 and Gemini 4 Argon is #2 at 1530. Anthropic's best model is sitting at 1513
The only real threat is Claude Fable 5.2, which dropped earlier this week and doesn't have a real score yet. Going from Fable 5 to 5.1, Anthropic gained about 16 points. If 5.2 makes the same jump, it lands around 1528 still being 10 points under Google
Polymarket gives Fable 5.2 a 63% shot at 1520