Corbie

One CBB click today 🏀

Mercyhurst vs Penn State

Penn State has made 93 free throws in THREE games, and that’s a big part of why I’m willing to lay points here. When I’m asking a team to win by 22, I’d much rather have them getting downhill and putting pressure on these low level matchups. Penn State is shooting just 26% from three, so that’s probably a good thing they are slash heavy, going 43/49 at the line against Chattanooga, then 29/36 against Pitt. Inside, Jurić has opened with three straight double-doubles and Prkačin is 20/24 from the field. Mercyhurst has allowed 64% inside in its two D-I games, but the other end is where I think this gets difficult for small guy. They scored 43 at Marquette and 56 at Notre Dame, going 11/51 from three across those games, and my takeaway from their shot profiles was that they’re having to make some really tough shots just to get anything going. More trips up and down means more of those possessions against a team that can get easier points inside and at the stripe. With volume this feels like a quick and painless Points per Play mismatch that calls for the fave to put up 85+, losing to Mercyhurst scoring 65+, a number they've hit in just 1 of their 13 Top 200 matchups via Kenpom

▶️ PENN STATE -20.5

Projection (via Bettor Odds) is right at the number, but with a PG the same height and weight as Mercyhurst Center, thought it was a fun spot to see the extremes of the rim + FT offense

2 CFB wagers to round out Week 11 🏈
@YahooSports

sports.yahoo.com/college-footba…

48 College Basketball games today 🏀
2 worth an extra look:

1) Norfolk St vs Old Dominion

> ODU hit 17/31 threes against Bucknell, tied a school record and still only scored 82.. their other D1 game was a 61–49 win over Western Michigan, so I'm not suddenly buying this as some explosive offense. Norfolk's pace looks a little misleading too because I think William & Mary dragged them into that game, rather than Norfolk actually wanting to play that fast. Against ODU I expect both teams to be much more comfortable slowing it down, and our projection has it at 134.8, roughly ODU 70–65. The frustrating part is the market has already taken most of the good number away, so 136 only leaves us 1.2 points of room. I added some there for synergy and vibes with live podcast and having skin in the game, but that's the bottom of what I'd play and I'd keep the size down as I got in mostly in the 140 range. Like the under, don't like chasing it, but given market conviction it's likely still good and worth a yap on the daily thread

▶️ UNDER 136.5

2) Cal Poly vs Grand Canyon

> Our projection is roughly GCU 102–83, so needing 182 here doesn't feel nearly as ridiculous as the total looks. Cal Poly is No. 1 in KenPom tempo and GCU is No. 25, which is why I can see this getting into the 80-possession range without either team having to play differently than it wants to. Cal Poly fired 37 threes and scored 84 at Arizona; they're going to keep giving themselves chances even if they're down 20. The growing concern in big spreads is GCU deciding it's done scoring once the game is in hand, but they put up 30 in the final 10 minutes of the Texas Southern opener to finish with 103, then scored 99 against Bethune. That's what I want to see when betting a number this high. Cal Poly made 16 of those threes at Arizona, so I'm not treating 84 as an automatic floor, but our 185.1 still gives us 3.6 points at this price. Typically a bit too small for a click, but I set the floor in a matchup like this much higher than normal & if shots are falling or whistles are.. whistlin.. this could cruise over the big number

▶️ OVER 181.5

Every projection daily -> @GetBettorOdds

11am low major hoops + office tree up

56 College Basketball games today 🏀
4 worth an extra look:

1) Eastern Kentucky vs Georgia Tech
I'm circling Georgia Tech as an over team for a little while. Scott Cross is fine beating the hell out of somebody and this group just shot 47 free throws against Georgia Southern. EKU wants to run but doesn't have the same talent, forcing a lot of fouls trying to keep up. The other piece I like is Victor Valdes. He followed Cross from Troy, where he was a huge part of that offense, and he's played nine and seven minutes in the first two games. That's a good player coming off the bench with minutes to earn and a bucket getter coming in that Cross likes, wouldn't be shocked to see schemes still trying to put up ptrs late. Need EKU to contribute (this is definitely Georgia Tech doing most of the work), but I'm expecting a full 40 minutes and plenty of points with the clock stopped.
▶️ OVER 164.5 (current 165.5)

2) Illinois vs Texas Tech
I like the shots this game should produce. Illinois has the best offense in the country in my opinion, but I'm not expecting them to look as unstoppable against Texas Tech as they did against FDU and Penn. What I do expect is a lot of threes and attempts at the rim. Last year's meeting got to 158 with the teams shooting a combined 13/44 from three. Illinois alone put up 51 threes against FDU this year & I trust Tech's shooters more than their start suggests, especially at home. If they're going to keep up, that's how they do it. The short Illinois spread caught my eye too, but I'm buying the shooting matchup here. Plenty can go wrong betting a total this high; but the upside gives me enough to bet the over.
▶️ OVER 167

3) Duke vs Michigan State
I took this at 149.5 because I don't think Duke's offensive pieces fit together as cleanly as the talent or recent result would suggest. Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr looking efficient against Army and Coastal Carolina doesn't answer what happens when those easy looks disappear. On the other end, Duke can switch so much that I'm not convinced Michigan State has enough scoring around Jeremy Fears. I made this 144. Still lean under, but the number had already dropped four points by the show and I'm not running to chase it. Also look at last season where this was a 66-60 Duke win in December, less time to get familiar and make those first month adjustments for teams with alot of new faces.
Lean UNDER 148

4) Florida State vs Florida
I think Florida State can make this a lot more uncomfortable than people expect. Florida usually has a massive advantage inside, but Ponder gives FSU somebody who can actually make Chinyelu work and draw fouls himself. Then you add a big, annoying press in a hostile road environment, early in the season when there isn't much film on this group. I'm not sold on Florida handling all of that cleanly. Miami shot 4/17 from three, missed nine free throws and still finished within 10 of Florida. FSU has a path to competing physically without needing some ridiculous shooting night. The question is whether they can turn that pressure into mistakes without giving Florida easy baskets once it breaks the press. This was a 2 pt game in UF last year, this years FSU team is much stronger and should be ready for war
LEAN Florida St +9, ML

Projections via @GetBettorOdds