Michaël van de Poppe

Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle.

@RaoulGMI reads it completely differently:

"This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020."

His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while.

Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore.

In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel:

"So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity."

Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show.

We cover:
- Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time
- The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money
- How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code
- AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks
- #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction
- Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test
- How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year

Timestamps:
00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore
04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck
05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish
11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race
18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb
24:48 - Building Everything With AI
32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk
42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out?
45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction
51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity
54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win
1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests

This is a super interesting spot for $LINK.

It's been falling for nearly 1.5 months, since it peaked in September.

Expectations are that we'll continue to fall, but I honestly think that we'll be bottoming out within these weeks or have bottomed already.

That's where you'd want to accumulate assets like $LINK.

Essentially, this is the chop phase of #Bitcoin.

Nothing special, just the consequence of buyers and sellers stepping in at each side of the range.

This range is designed for you to lose your Bitcoin and your assets.

Just don't.

Accumulate as much as you can, as the escape velocity of Bitcoin will come afterwards, just like it did in 2024.

I would classify $TAO as an interesting asset here.

That's because we've swept many recent lows and bounced back immediately.

Sure, you could argue we're still in a strong downtrend, but once it turns around, the trend can flip fast, and it's hard to get into a position.

That's why you'd want to build the position right here, right now, since these sweeps are often the final phase of the correction.

#Bitcoin is already in a bull market compared to gold.

Ultimately, it all depends on which metric you value Bitcoin against.

I stand behind the thesis that you'll need to sell Bitcoin at certain points in time, as it's simply overvalued vs. other assets.

Right now, I'd much rather be allocated to #Crypto and #Bitcoin, as it's clear we're already at the start of a bull cycle, like we saw in 2023/2024.

There's still much more upside to come, and we haven't even hit escape velocity.