DWF Labs

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

BTC has been higher 12 months after every US midterm. But each time, the bottom came after the vote, not before.

Will this time be different?

Simplicity wins.

In modern markets speed is the defining risk.

Good and bad events land almost instantly.

The unprepared miss both the protection and the opportunity.

Since the ETFs launched, BTC sell-offs have been slower and calmer. Not shallower.

The median sell-off now falls 0.69% a day, half the 2021 pace. Days with a 7%+ drop are down from 15 a year to 2.

Depth hasn’t changed.

The median ETF-era sell-off fell 21.3% vs. 24.0% in 2021, and 19.4% in 2022–23.

19 midterms since 1950. 19 times the S&P 500 was higher a year later.

Why? The year after is year 3 of the presidential cycle, historically the market’s best.

- S&P 500: up in 17 of 19 third years, median +18.9% (vs. +9.3% otherwise)
- Nasdaq: up in 11 of 13, median +29.8% (vs. +14.7%)
- BTC: 3 for 3 (+34%, +92%, +155%)

The next third year is 2027.