Danny Dayan

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@DannyDayan5

Global Macro Volatility Portfolio Manager. Author of Macro Musings Newsletter.
My views do not consist of investment advice.

dannydayan.substack.com Joined October 2022

542 Following 31K Followers 41K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5 Nov 3

Financial Conditions: The Barometer.

I look at all aspects of FCI to assess the forward looking picture for growth and inflation. In addition, I also look closely at two other models, including the Fed's FCI-G.

This is a must read note.

dannydayan.substack.com/p/financial-co…

dannydayan.substack.com Financial Conditions: The Barometer It’s time for an update on all things FCI.

Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5 11h

Can’t say I didn’t warn about it

Danny Dayan Verified account @DannyDayan5 Oct 28

The Fed will be forced to consider 50 bps hikes going forward.

I continue to believe, as I have all cycle, that they do not understand financial conditions and what is needed to win here. Whatever miniscule tightening has already been unwound. It's not a game of "touch"
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Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5 14h

If you're still calling this a precious metals bull market, I can't help you.

Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5 19h

Just a reminder that the Fed provides their reaction function via the SEPs, then data comes out and they undershoot their own framework consistently.

3 straight elections driven by anxiety over inflation.

They are not a serious institution.

Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5 20h

Let's say you are one of the geniuses on the Fed.

3 straight Core CPIs of 0.3. Job gains 4x the breakeven estimate. Nominal GDP 6%. Redbook Sales 10.4%.

10y yields are 40 bps lower than a month ago. Does this help or hurt?

I'm not very smart. Help me understand.