Danny_Mackay

So far we’ve looked at Covid cases in Scotland - how do we compare with other countries? Looks like Scotland & England are at the same point on the curve & by end of June we should be down to a handful of cases each day.
So approx.100 days from start to “end” of the pandemic…

We’re now in phase 1 of easing the restrictions on lockdown in Scotland with phase 2 due in a month’s time. With cases continuing to fall, how many can we expect to be seeing at the start of July? Let's take a look...
#COVID19

Adding in new data from the weekend & today shows that the Gompertz growth model is still an excellent fit to Scotland’s total number of Covid cases. The Gompertz is a well known epi. growth model, but there are other models that can perform just as well for forecasting.
#COVID19

So Scotland has its road map out of lockdown… what does that look like in terms of the numbers from our Gompertz disease growth model? Well, by early June we’ll be down to approx.10 new cases per day and by July approx.1… looks like the FM is being ultra-cautious. #COVID19

Well done Laura!