Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek)

Every capital market shares one fact: investors & traders create stories about data to determine prices. To outperform, you need to know the next chapter of those stories before others do. That’s where we come in.

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There’s an old saying in Silicon Valley, which the $NVDA board certainly knows, that goes “You don’t fire Steve Jobs”.  Visionary founders who can scale a business profitably over decades are truly rare. Huang is certainly one of them.

Yesterday's action in $NVDA is a good reminder that 1) skittish retail traders often set opening prices and 2) hedging key man risk with long-dated options can lessen its impact.

Ten-year Treasury yields are down 45 bps from their October highs, mostly due to lower real (ex-inflation expectations) yields. But inflation breakevens are falling precipitously and near 2-year lows. This suggests recession concerns are rising in the sovereign debt market.

Fed Funds Futures have reset their expectations for rate hikes over the next year and now see a December increase, another bump in mid-2027, but likely no further action after that.