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Dr. Doodad

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@DoodadDoctor

Biopharma Investor | Industry Insights | 13F Flow | Short-Interest Trends

Daily intel on bio stocks, research, positioning & market developments.
Palo Alto, California Joined November 2025
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(1/6) $TVTX THREAD - Why I believe sparsentan will be approved for FSGS indication ahead of Monday’s PDUFA

First of all, I think that the FDA’s decision to extend review of the FSGS application by 3 months can ultimately be viewed as a positive. If it was as obvious CRL like some are claiming, why wouldn’t the FDA have just issued it in January? The review extension & request for additional information suggests a willingness to work with $TVTX towards an ultimate approval. Historically, >85% of applications that have approval decisions get pushed out 3 months, ultimately get approved by the FDA.

We know that in October 2024, the PARASOL working group (which is comprised of academics, the FDA, & clinicians) examined datasets from 25+ studies & >1,600 FSGS patients and determined that eGFR (which was the primary endpoint in the failed Ph3 DUPLEX trial) is not a feasible outcome measure for FSGS trials.

If we look at the context clues since then, multiple developments have occurred that bode positively for $TVTX ‘s FSGS application:

(1) Last year the FDA cancelled the previously assigned Advisory Committee panel that was scheduled ahead of the original decision date.

(2) At the Annual Rare & Genetic Renal Diseases Conference last year, Dr. Aliza Thompson (Director of the Division of Cardiology & Nephrology at FDA) expressed that there is a continued push for the FDA to utilize surrogate endpoints to accelerate drug development in kidney diseases where there is a significant unmet medical need. This is the exact case for FSGS, which has no approved treatment options. The PARASOL workshop concluded with unanimous agreement by the group on the value of proteinuria as an approvable endpoint.

Despite the eGFR improvement primary endpoint failure in Ph3, Filspari DID show benefit across multiple other kidney function measurements, including proteinuria, which was also reported in their previous studies.

All of this suggests there is significant support (from Dr. Thompson on down) for Filspari to get approved for use in FSGS based on the impact the drug showed on proteinuria in the DUET and DUPLEX studies. Again, the fact that they didn’t simply issue a CRL in January also supports this notion and implies a strong willingness to work with $TVTX toward an approval.
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Dr. Doodad Verified account @DoodadDoctor
Leerink reiterated an Outperform rating on $ZURA following their late Q3 earnings, with the largest focus being the imminent Phase 2 TibuSHIELD readout in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS).

• Targeting ≥20% placebo-adjusted HiSCR75 response
• Study powered to detect a 20–25% treatment delta even with ~25% placebo response
• Recent MRK Phase 2 data showing just 15% placebo response offers some reassurance
• Phase 2 systemic sclerosis data expected 1H27, with PMR trial initiation planned by YE26

Leerink sees an attractive setup into the HS readout, with a potential near-term catalyst and additional upside from systemic sclerosis and PMR.
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Dr. Doodad Verified account @DoodadDoctor
Needham reiterated their Buy rating on $ANNX with a $25 PT following management's vonaprument webinar.

Key takeaways:
• Phase 3 ARCHER II Month 15 full-study readout remains on track for Q4 2026, followed by two US substudies in Q1 2027 and Month 24 data in Q3 2027.

• KOL believes the trial doesn't need to replicate Phase 2's post-hoc 73% relative risk reduction in vision loss for commercial adoption.

• Management expects the treatment vs. sham difference to widen by Month 24, potentially providing a second opportunity for success if Month 15 misses.

At $4.19/share, Needham's $25 PT implies nearly 500% upside.
Dr. Doodad Verified account @DoodadDoctor
Piper Sandler mentioned that they saw a positive readthrough for $ZURA after listening to $GSK's 10/28 earnings call (note below).

$GSK continues to advance its anti-TSLP/IL-33 pipeline across asthma, COPD and CRSwNP, reinforcing interest in these targets across respiratory indications.

Piper views $GSK's commitment as indirect validation of $ZURA's torudokimab (anti-IL-33 + RAGE), with potential implications for future indication selection and development.