Ethan C7

NEW from DeCalibrate: Potentially the Bluest Election in 44 Years

2026 is set to be a D+9 to 11 TSUNAMI, with House Dems favored to win an even LARGER majority than in 2018.

The Senate is now less about control, vs how deep a hole Rs find themselves in.

decalibrate.substack.com/p/2026-potenti…

*IF* Dems manage to win a trifecta with 60 Senators in 2028, it’s prob in Dems’ long term interests to keep the filibuster around it in some form.

Makes it MUCH more likely that new laws (voting rights, redistricting, healthcare, immigration, etc) survive the next GOP trifecta.

Atm, NY Dems are winning the 2026 House vote by 24.3%. For reference, Biden won NY by 23.1%.

Here's the 2020 Prez -> 2026 House swing. Notably, all of Long Island & Manhattan are redder than in 2020, ESPECIALLY wealthy, heavily Jewish NY-12. OTOH, much of Upstate is WAY bluer.

Wonder if AL Rs try gerrymandering AL-02 again.

It’s definitely possible to draw a seat Figures loses. But OTOH, I’m not sure the AL GOP wants to deal with permanently sky-high turnout from angry Black voters.

Tuberville only won the Gov race by 4%, and Rs won the Senate & House vote by 9%.

Mike Turner going down remains one of the most surprising results for me.

Turner went from outrunning Trump by a MASSIVE 13% in 2024, to only outrunning Husted by ~5%!

What a difference a strong, well-funded challenger makes!