Pinned post
My recap of September's disappointing but not terrible jobs report.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-rep…
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-rep…
Guy Berger
@EconBerger
Senior Advisor on Labor Markets at Access/Macro; Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at BGI. Tweets represent my own views.
3.7K Following 114K Followers 36K Posts
Latest posts 5
Just walked past what sounded like an electric malfunction but looked like this (not my photo)
My recap of the October jobs report... 2026's surprising (to me) labor market recovery continues, but all our indicators are slightly out of sync.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-rep…
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-rep…
1/ The biggest "good news nobody noticed" in today's jobs report is:
Job finding rates for the unemployed are finally rising!!!
Even though hiring has risen only a tiny bit, that improvement in tandem with lower unemployment means less congestion/competition for jobs.
Job finding rates for the unemployed are finally rising!!!
Even though hiring has risen only a tiny bit, that improvement in tandem with lower unemployment means less congestion/competition for jobs.
Household survey take:
This month was relatively disappointing. The household survey was decent, but not nearly as good as you would expect given the establishment survey.
In the next 1-2 reports I expect catch-up here (e.g. unemployment rate declines) even as NFP growth slows
This month was relatively disappointing. The household survey was decent, but not nearly as good as you would expect given the establishment survey.
In the next 1-2 reports I expect catch-up here (e.g. unemployment rate declines) even as NFP growth slows
2/ The US labor market has significantly outperformed my expectations this year - at the beginning of the year, I thought we'd be at an unemployment rate of 4.60% by October, instead we're at 4.14%View quoted post on X