Elliot Turner

@ElliotTurn

Dad. RGA Investment Advisors. Soundview Equity Partners. GARP investor. Mets, Jets, Isles fan. Compulsive reader. In awe of nature. Co-host @twiii_podcast.

Stamford, CT compoundingmyinterests.com Joined December 2008

2.3K Following 16K Followers 37K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn Jan 22, 2025

Incredible new episode with Doug O'Laughlin of @fabknowledge and @SemiAnalysis_!!

On how the semi industry is leading AI forward, the winners of the AI race, an intriguing investment opp in the newest bottleneck for the industry & the deep recession in the non-AI semi world.

This Week in Intelligent Investing @twiii_podcast Jan 22, 2025

.@ElliotTurn and @mihaljevic welcome Doug O'Laughlin of SemiAnalysis and Fabricated Knowledge. Doug shares insights into semiconductors, how the industry leads AI forward, AI winners, opportunity in an industry bottleneck, and the non-AI semi recession.
podbean.com/eas/pb-m8t6a-1…
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Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn 20h

Really excited for this with @peter_mantas at @manualofideas!

Peter Mantas Verified account @peter_mantas 2d

I will be in Chicago next Wednesday (w/ @inflectionecon) to have a fireside chat with @ElliotTurn on the opportunity at present in biopharma and life science tools for generalist investors.

Will be a fun chat so don't miss out!
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Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn 2d

Part of why I've been thinking about this is our belief that at some point AI needs a handoff from the "infrastructure layer" to the "application layer."

The value stops accruing to the component manufacturers as new tech powers new, previously unfathomable businesses.

Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn 3d

I couldn't get the thought out of my head so I had to map it out.

This chart shows the COVID winners from April 2020-Dec 31 2021 plotted against the AI Bottleneck 40 from April 2025-today.

Look at the overlay and look at the correlations, it's jaw-dropping!

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Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn 2d

I'm not sure that's all that different. The hyperscalers and frontier labs are not in my AI index here. I think those building recurring revenue streams are incomparable with those who supply to the buildout. This could be a very advantageous moment in time for $GOOG $AMZN $META

Brandon Ladoff Verified account @denmarkcap 2d

one potential difference here is that, outside of coding, the underlying models / products could still be early in their utility and usage.
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Elliot Turner @ElliotTurn 2d

I'll miss you $ROKU but think about you every time I watch TV! What an absolutely wild ride it's been. Quite lucrative but incredibly turbulent.

I hope the lessons learned end up more valuable than the investment itself, as there are many!