Ellis Bates

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@ElliscbIV

Project Manager @maristpoll. Data Science Fellow @VoteHub. Occasional writing on Substack. Marist '30

Poughkeepsie, NY ellisbates.substack.com Joined June 2023

1.1K Following 4.7K Followers 3.6K Posts

Latest posts 5

Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV 13h

Colom has surpassed 470,000 votes, roughly 3,000 more than Harris received in Mississippi, with votes still being counted.

VoteHub Verified account @VoteHub 13h

Mississippi Senate: 312 new votes from Rankin County

🔵 Colom: +167 (53.5%)
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +139 (44.6%)
⚪ Pinkins: +6 (1.9%)

Colom nets 28 votes, expanding his statewide lead to 2,990.
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Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV 15h

Mississippi’s primary electorate was just R+3 this year, driven by surging Black turnout in the west, even before Callais. Add Hyde-Smith’s electoral weakness (she’s never won by more than 10!), and there’s a strong case to be made the data pointed towards a single-digit race.

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot 2d

Colom deserves a lot of credit for (probably) beating the odds, but the reality is, this is just what the data pointed to for most of the cycle. Forecasters can't be expected to divine hidden truths.
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Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV 17h

Democrats are on pace to deal a major blow to the NCGOP’s redistricting efforts, turning an 11R-3D gerrymander into an 11D-3R delegation thanks to Cooper’s sweeping coattails.

VoteHub Verified account @VoteHub 17h

NC-05: 255 new votes from Watauga County

🔵 Hubbard: +186 (72.9%)
🔴 Foxx: +57 (22.4%)

Hubbard nets 129 votes, expanding his districtwide lead to 325.
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Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV 19h

Darline Graham was essentially the Cindy Hyde-Smith of South Carolina, which is ironic given that both are likely to lose in the end.

She underperformed Wilson by 9 points, nearly matching Hyde-Smith’s average 8.5-point underperformance relative to Trump from 2018-2020.

Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV 1d

The sequel to my July article on Black turnout is here! The post-Callais surge in primary turnout carried over into the general, delivering seismic Democratic gains across the Deep South.

VoteHub Verified account @VoteHub 1d

Democrats won across the country in last week's midterms, but much of their Senate gains were concentrated in the Deep South, where Black voters turned out and supported Democratic candidates at unprecedented rates, writes @ElliscbIV.

votehub.com/2026/11/10/a-p…
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