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Establish The Run NBA @EstablishRunNBA
We receive a lot of questions about using NBA projections to bet on player props.

While useful, we do NOT suggest blindly betting projection edges for player props.

Since we create both player projections and release bet recommendations, we are often asked why we have not released a bet to our subscribers when our projection shows an edge vs. the line.

There are 4 primary reasons we may not release a bet even though the projection rates favorable:

1. The bet rates well, but there is not enough liquidity to be considered "widely available".

For us to release an official bet, the line we like has to be available on FanDuel, or available on DraftKings, Caesars, and PropBuilder.

In these instances, if you can identify a line that rates well on DraftKings or Caesars but isn't available on FanDuel, you may have found a good bet to target.

2. The bet rates well, but there are outstanding injury question marks that may impact our projections.

We recommend perusing the official NBA Injury Report while shopping for bets. You do not want to bet projection edges on teams that have Questionable tags. The market generally prices these situations well, and we do not recommend leaning into these situations unless you have both significant NBA betting knowledge and expertise assessing injury situations.

If you aren't sure if this is you, it probably isn't you.

3. The bet rates well, but our team has some qualitative concern about the projection fragility.

In other words, we are making educated guesses on certain factors that drive the projection, and we believe we could just as easily be wrong as we are right about those factors. There is likely still some edge, but it's not high enough to meet our threshold for releasing a bet. Oftentimes, these will be dropped in Discord as "unofficial bets" (right before game time) in the nba-props channel.

4. The bet rates well, but we have exposure to this bet in other releases we've already taken and we're choosing to manage total risk to the situation.

For example, we show a projection edge on the over for the starting point guard's points prop and an under on the reserve point guard's points prop. These two players' performances are tied together and we are only choosing to risk one unit on the situation.

In cases where you've missed out on the official bet, you may want to look for other projection edges on that team, as there may be other correlated situations we chose not to make official.

When you come across 1. and 4. it is highly likely that we would believe these are good bets. But in instance 2. and 3., it is likely the bet is either not great or even bad, as the market is pricing in certain factors better than we can.

As a general rule, you need to be very careful betting projection edges, and we do NOT recommend doing this without considering both the above. We release a free injury show on our YouTube channel during the week to go over many of that days situations.

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Establish The Run NBA @EstablishRunNBA
Ten Takeaways From 10/22/25

ONE) The Kids Can Play

This rookie class has been hyped up as a potential all-timer. Most of them lived up to expectations. Some performances from the lottery picks:

Cooper Flagg - 10 points, 10 rebounds, 0 assists, 32 minutes
Dylan Harper - 15 points, 4 rebounds, 7-14 FG, 23 minutes
Kon Knueppel - 11 points, 5 rebounds, 25 minutes
VJ Edgecombe (starter) - 34 points, 7 rebounds, 42 minutes (!!!)
Ace Bailey - 2 points, 4 rebounds, 20 minutes
Tre Johnson - 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4-8 3PT, 26 minutes
Jeremiah Fears - 17 points, 7-10 FG, 18 minutes
Egor Demin - 14 points, 5 rebounds, 22 minutes
Cedric Coward - 14 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 22 minutes
Derik Queen - 3 points, 5 rebounds, 1 block, 15 minutes

Other notables:

Ryan Kalkbrenner (starter) - 10 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks, 27 minutes
Ben Saraf (starter) - 8 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 20 minutes
Walter Clayton Jr. - 10 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 18 minutes
Nique Clifford (starter) - 2 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, 24 minutes

Flagg was rough, but come on. They’re trying him at PG, and he’s dealing with Wemby. No concerns here. Bailey’s apparently been sick for “5-6 days” and looked winded from the start. He’ll be fine. Coward was a team-best +24 in a game they won by six. VJ is the real story here. Whew, 42 minutes is pretty wild for your first game. His 34 points are a new Sixers rookie debut record. The hints have been there for weeks, but it's still surprising to see. He’s going to be a household name in no time. As for Queen, I’m just happy he played.

“It was really fun.” - Kon Knueppel on his first NBA game

TWO) Embiid’s Minute Restriction

We all saw the same notification on Joel Embiid’s minute restriction. It’s just some of us didn’t buy it. Nick Nurse has historically lied about restrictions, and Embiid wasn’t listed on the Injury Report. Well, it didn’t take long to find out that Nurse was telling the truth. The ten 1H minutes were a huge tell. It was later reported that his minutes restriction was 20 minutes. As for how he looked, what can I say? Not great. He was 1-of-9 from the field, didn’t contest shit, and wasn’t going after boards.

“I’m good. You know, it’s going to take a while, you know, obviously, being on a minute restriction, playing shorter stints, it’s harder to kind of get into a rhythm. But I got to figure it out. That’s the way they got it set up. There’s still so much more I can contribute to other than scoring. So just using myself as a decoy to allow all these guys to do whatever they have to do to win.” - Joel Embiid

Yikes.

THREE) In Too Deep

As we begin to receive more and more information, I think it’s a valuable exercise to keep track of how teams utilize their benches. Seven went more than 10-deep on Wednesday night:

Nets (13)
Knicks (11)
Raptors (11)
Grizzlies (11)
Wizards (11)
Bucks (11)
Kings (11)

The hell with the Nets, man. They used all four first-rounders that were avail. Who knows? If Danny Wolf had played, they probably would have gone 14.

"When we faced adversity, we all went our separate ways... We're just doing things with no purpose [defensively]. Just running around." - Jordi Fernandez

FOUR) Shams vs Bondy

The Mike Brown-Knicks era has gotten off to an awkward start. Brown told us that Mitchell Robinson was being held out of their opener because of “load management." Then Shams went on the Pat McAfee show and said this:

“Mitchell Robinson & Josh Hart out…I think there’s a very real chance they’re missing very real time to start the year…”

Still can’t believe they played Mitch 18 1H minutes in their first preseason game with his injury history, but maybe that’s why they’re hiding things. They don’t want to be caught with egg on their face. Then, on Wednesday morning, Shams tweeted this out:

“Development: New York Knicks star Karl-Anthony Towns has been downgraded to doubtful to play in tonight's season opener against the Cleveland Cavaliers, sources tell ESPN.” - Shams Charania

Shortly after that, the Knicks beat writer Stefan Bondy tweeted:

“Despite being downgraded to doubtful, I’m hearing Karl-Anthony Towns will indeed play for the Knicks in tonight’s season opener.” - Stefan Bondy

Shams followed with:

“The Knicks, an hour later, are now listing Karl-Anthony Towns as questionable again. He is essentially a game-time decision.” - Shams Charania

“Final ruling: Karl-Anthony Towns is playing in Knicks' season opener versus Cleveland tonight at Madison Square Garden (7 pm ET on ESPN).” - Shams Charania

Only posting cause this might be the highlight of Bondy’s life.

Shams Charania - 0
Stefan Bondy - 1

Ariel Hukporti started for MitchRob and played 18 minutes.

FIVE) It’s Over, Isn’t It?

Victor Wembanyama vs the Mavericks:

40 PTS
15 REB
77.4% TS
3 BLK
+31
36.2% USG

As impressive as that looks, the highlights are better, trust. It looked like an adult playing with kindergartners. Anthony Davis should never remind me of a kindergartner.

“I’m much more in control of myself. The mind, I’m not worried about, because I saw what it was light to be confronted with potentially losing a lot, whether it’s your career or your health. So I’m not taking this for granted anymore. But the body, I’m having more fun. I’m not struggling to move as much, and I know I still need to get better, and I’m still going to get better.” - Wemby on how his summer of self-discovery prepared his mind and body for this season

SIX) Usage Check

If you think Wemby’s usage is high, wait till you see Giannis’ against the Wizards. Notable usage rates from Opening Night (min > 20):

Giannis Antetokounmpo - 45.3%
Cade Cunningham - 36.8%
Ja Morant - 35.1%
Dylan Harper - 33.9% (rookie)
Shaedon Sharpe - 32.9%
Brandon Miller - 32.9%
Stephon Castle - 31.3%
Desmond Bane - 30.5%
Zion Williamson - 30.3%
VJ Edgecombe - 30.1% (rookie)

SEVEN) Injuries

Kevin Porter Jr. sprained his ankle in the first quarter and did not return. Ryan Rollins started the second half in his place, not Cole Anthony. Doc Rivers says there's no further update on KPJ, but added it didn't look good and was a pretty bad sprain.

Luka Garza was ruled out after being placed in concussion protocol in the second quarter. Neemias Queta played 17 2H minutes.

Zaccharie Risacher wasn’t able to put much weight on his right leg after a collision with Jakob Poeltl. He went to the locker room and was cleared to return with an ankle sprain, but sat out the 4th quarter.

Updates:

Darius Garland is “pretty close” to returning, according to his on-air interview.

Chris Haynes said that he thinks we’ll see Jayson Tatum on the court against at some point this season. Still have a hard time buying it, but that’s all everyone’s been talking about, so maybe I’m in the wrong.

EIGHT) Rotation Notes

Some macro notes on sub patterns:

CLE: Tyrese Proctor (16 minutes) made his way into the rotation with De’Andre Hunter (knee) out. Jaylon Tyson (20 minutes) started.

BKN: Noah Clowney (20 minutes) played a lot of center.

CHA: Sion James (17 minutes) was the 7th man. Tre Mann (21 minutes) was the 10th. Ryan Kalkbrenner (27 minutes) and Moussa Diabate (21 minutes) split the center minutes.

MIA: Kel’el Ware (14 minutes) was strictly Bam’s backup. Pelle Larsson (4 minutes) was the 10th man.

ORL: Jalen Suggs (17 minutes) started and played in short stints.

PHI: Dominick Barlow (34 minutes) started for PG13. Andre Drummond played three minutes, and that was only to help Embiid stay under his minutes limit.

BOS: Anfernee Simons (32 minutes) came off the bench. Xavier Tillman (16 minutes) was the first sub for Neemias Queta (25 minutes).

CHI: Tre Jones (32 minutes) started for Coby White (not Ayo). Patrick Williams (17 minutes) was the 8th man.

NOP: Almost eight minutes of Zion/Queen overlap (+/- 0). Hunter Dickinson (5 minutes) was Yves Missi’s backup in the first half and then disappeared.

MEM: Olivier-Maxence Prosper (15 minutes) was Jaren Jackson Jr.’s primary backup.

MIL: Cole Anthony plays 12 minutes despite KPJ’s injury. Ryan Rollins (29 minutes) started the second half. Myles Turner and Bobby Portis do not overlap.

LAC: It looked like Zubac (27 minutes) and Lopez (17 minutes) were splitting the center minutes before garbage time. Bogdan Bogdanovic was a DNP-CD.

UTA: Things are already all out of whack. Ace’s minutes are gonna suck until he’s over his illness. Kyle Filipowski (25 minutes) started ahead of Taylor Hendricks (19 minutes). Cody Williams was going to be a DNP-CD, but played garbage time.

SAS: We saw about three minutes of ‘French Vanilla’ (Wemby and Kornet). Carter Brytant saw 4 1H minutes but didn’t check back in until garbage time.

DAL: D’Angelo Russell (15 minutes) was the 8th man. Elite Best Ball fade. Rookie Ryan Nembhard (16 minutes) and DLo checked in together.

SAC: Rookie Dylan Caldwell (15 minutes) was the 11th man. Keon Ellis (13 minutes) was the 10th man. Malik Monk (27 minutes) scored 19 points off the bench.

PHO: Oso Ighodaro (19 minutes) starts ahead of Mark Williams (24 minutes). Rookie Khaman Maluach was a DNP-CD.

MIN - Donte DiVincenzo (20 minutes) starts ahead of Mike Conley (13 minutes). Terrence Shannon Jr. (25 minutes) closes over both of them. Rob Dillingam is a DNP-CD. Bones Hyland (8 minutes) is even ahead of him.

POR - Donovan Clingan started and touched 30 minutes. He said at Media Day that his goal was to play 30 minutes per game this season. Rookie Hansen Yang played only five 1H minutes.

NINE) Matas

You didn’t think I’d leave here without talking about Matas, did you? Sorry, he’s just the best thing to happen to the Bulls since DRose. Lemme have this.

Matas Buzelis vs the Pistons:

21 PTS
6 REB
3 BLK
7-12 FG
69.6% TS
34 MIN

If he’s getting 34 minutes on opening night, he’d most definitely live for his goal of winning Most Improved Player. Currently lined at +1400 on FD, that’s only going up. It’s not just what he’s doing. It’s how he’s doing it. Everything looks so much easier for him. The Beef Stew (Isaiah Stewart) poster has been on repeat all night.

"I'm not really worried who's there. I'm athletic enough to finish over anybody so I don't really care who's there." - Matas Buzelis on postering Isaiah Stewart.

TEN) Three Other Standouts

Okay, before I get outta here, allow me to give these three guys their flowers. It’s been a long day/slate, so I can’t jam everything in here that I’d like, but I don’t wanna leave out…

Donovan Mitchell scored 21 of his 31 points in the 3rd quarter to help erase a 15-point lead. They still lost to New York.

Ja Morant scored 24 of his 35 points in the second half on 82.0% TS (9-12 FG) to help Memphis beat New Orleans.

Davion Mitchell picks up where he left off last season, with 16 points and 12 assists in 35 minutes. Maybe we just need to accept that this is who he is now. Miami lost to Orlando, but man, that game somehow totaled 246 points. Maybe that’s the read headline.
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Establish The Run NBA @EstablishRunNBA
Ten Takeaways From 10/21/25

ONE) NBA on NBC

Hello, friends. Welcome to the 2025-26 NBA season. It’s been a minute, hasn’t it? A whole lot has changed since we last spoke. We were reintroduced to the NBA on NBC. Can’t believe it’s been almost 25 years, but here we are again. They absolutely crushed it after having some early audio difficulties. I get how cliché it is, but I seriously got chills once “Roundball Rock” started playing. Thought Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter, and Tracy McGrady had contagious energy in the pre-game coverage. The graphics are clean and straightforward. Really like the team fouls tracking in the score bug—just a very pleasant experience. Looking forward to the “Prime” experience. God, can’t believe it costs $650 to watch basketball now.

We need to talk about the MJ segment, though. If you’ve been living under a rock, NBC shocked the world and somehow convinced Michael Jordan to sign on as a “special contributor”. “Insights to Excellence” is sadly everything I thought it would be… nothing. He wasn’t in the studio or anything. Looked like some pre-recorded interview with Mike Tirico from who knows when at his house, talking about why he’s come out of hiding. The thing lasted about three and a half minutes.

“To pay it forward. I had the obligation to basketball.” - MJ on the decision to join NBC

Okay Mike. Hoping for some actual insight in future recordings.

TWO) Champs Are Here

OKC received their rings and raised their banner before the game. Vibes were immaculate. Dillon Jones was even in attendance. Good thing the Wizards waived him just in time for him to make his flight. Rockets weren’t having it, though. Ime Udoka said that they didn’t watch the ceremony and were instead focused on trying to ruin their night. Kevin Durant came out for warmups to loud boos, and so he booed them back. Everyone laughed. Meanwhile, Steven Adams still gets loud cheers because, well, who doesn’t love Steven Adams?

It was a rough go-around for all Thunder not named Chet Holmgren (28 points, 11-17 FG) to start, especially SGA. He had just five points at the half on 40.0% shooting (2-5 FG), but you can only contain the league and Finals MVP for so long. He scored 24 of his 35 points in the 4th quarter and overtimes. What’s up with the four missed free throws (10-14 FT)?

"I'm glad the guys enjoyed the ceremony. That's a great, great life event they had." - Mark Daigneault

"It was surreal. I don't know how to describe it besides that. Seeing the banner raised was cool too... I'll remember it for the rest of my life." - SGA on the pregame ceremony

THREE) Thunder Starters

One of the more critical questions going into Opening Night was, “Who’s the 5th Thunder starter?” as we wait for JDub’s wrist to get right. SGA, Dort, Chet, and IHart felt obvious. Between Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace, I leaned Cason mainly because of the bigger picture. Didn’t make sense to start Alex after managing him all last year, but then he started in every preseason game he played. Had to give that some sort of credit (and we did). Well, they ended up doing what they did a lot last year: change it up midway. Wallace started, and then Caruso started the second half…  for Hartenstein. Here we go again. Cason’s playmaking looks improved.

Daigneault went 11 deep (!!!) in the first quarter. Rookie, Brooks Barnhizer was the fourth sub off the bench, played about two minutes, and was never seen again. Part of that reason is Ajay Mitchell, who checked in after him (for Shai). There’s been some buzz, going back to his standout Summer League (19.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 spg). He scored 12 of his 16 points in the second quarter.

“Not surprised. He was playing like this before he got hurt last year.” - Mark Daigneault on Ajay Mitchell

FOUR) Jumbo Lineup

It’s not much of a surprise to see Udoka start with the Steven Adams/Alperen Sengun pairing after how dominant they looked at the end of last season (+29.9 net rating, 162 minutes)—especially given the matchup, with Holmgren and Hartenstein on the other side. The real shocker is how much they leaned into it. Alpi and Adams shared the court for over 30 minutes (+8). LIKE WTF?!!! This was Adams' first time touching 37 minutes since November 9, 2022. They did just sign him to a three-year extension. You’d think they might wanna be careful with their investment. The average height of this Rockets' starting lineup is 6'10 (Thompson, Durant, Smith, Sengun, Adams), LMAO

FIVE) Alpi Dominance Continues

Maybe what Sengun was doing at EuroBasket 2025 (21.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.0 spg, and 1.1 bpg) translates over? Not gonna lie, I certainly had my doubts, but no… he’s looking just as dominant (I know, one game).

Alperen Sengun vs Thunder:

39 PTS
11 REB
7 AST
2 STL
5-8 3P (career-high)
10-11 FT
27.7% USG

Yeah, I see it too. Second time in his career, he’s attempted eight threes. Dude averaged 1.2 attempts per game last year. The hitch in his shot appears to be gone, so hey, this could be real (doubt it). All I know is that if it is, it’ll do wonders for his ceiling on sites that reward threes (DK). Also, going 10 of 11 from the line is something worth paying attention to. He was a 69.2% free-throw shooter last season.

On the flip side, Amen Thompson (18 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast) had seven attempts from behind the arc and missed them all. Sucks, but his shot still looks flat. There’s no lift. While we’re here on Thompson, he had to leave the game late because of cramps.

SIX) The Reed Conundrum

I’ll give Reed Sheppard (9 pts, 4 ast, 37.9% TS, 28 min) this; he’s a confident motherfucker, and I love that about him (in a cute way). It’s hilarious how many times he looked off KD in this game. He’s gonna have stretches where he’s feeling it and looks automatic, but is it really gonna be worth it if his defense looks this dreadful? He can’t stay in front of anyone. The Thunder hunted and won that matchup with ease all night. Amen getting cramped up in OT1 really salvaged his minutes, cause I didn’t think he was gonna see the court again. Again, I know it’s only one game, but a couple more performances like this and things could get ugly.

SEVEN) KD Gets Away With One

Or should that say gets away with none? Kevin Durant (23 points, 9 rebounds) made his Rockets debut, and there’re gonna be two things you take away from it.

Why’d you trade for him again? He was pretty much non-existent when they needed him most down the stretch, with a 12.5 USG% in both OT’s.

There shouldn’t have been a second overtime. KD was clearly seen calling for a timeout after a rebound with about a second left on the clock. The problem is, they didn’t have any–He Webber’d it. He should have been T’d up, giving the Thunder a free throw to potentially end the game. Zarba and his buddies even got together to talk it over once the buzzer sounded, but did nothing. Strange, but luckily, it didn’t end up mattering much since OKC won in the second overtime.

“Kevin definitely called timeout 3 times… They just missed it.” - SGA

The Thunder beat the Rockets 125-124.

EIGHT) Kuminga Starts

Gallagher and I both felt pretty confident (sounds so stupid saying that with Kerr) that had Mosey Moody been available for this one, he would have been named the fifth starter, but his calf’s still bothering him. Steve Kerr decided to start Jonathan Kuminga (17 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 33 minutes) instead, rewarding him for a strong preseason. There might be some more rewards coming because, whew, this is exactly what they’ve been wanting to see from him for the last couple of years, especially the boards. You wouldn’t know it from looking at Luka’s box score, but JK did about as well as you could defending him; he made his threes (4-6 3PT) and consistently found the open man. I’m gonna go ahead and guess that he starts again against Denver on Thursday

Let the showcasing begin.

“When you ask for opportunity, you must deliver. He’s been very vocal about his opportunity and he delivered.” - Draymond Green on Jonathan Kuminga

“I just wanna help JK be great… We’ve been kickin' it. Hanging out. Watching film and just working on our game together. I know how great he wants to be and how great he can be.” - Jimmy Butler on mentoring Jonathan Kuminga

NINE) Jimmy Being Jimmy

One of the funnier moments of the night came post-game, when Jimmy Butler talked about a bet he made with Draymond Green. The wager is that he’ll have a better free-throw percentage than Steph Curry this season. Deadass, hahaha. He admitted that it’s probably a bad bet but I still love that he does this type of shit. Two years ago, he said he was playfully aiming to shoot 50.0% from three. He obviously didn’t hit that mark, but he did shoot a career-best 41.4% that season. If you’re wondering how the bet is looking to start after Game 1:

Jimmy Butler: 16-16 FT (100.0%)
Steph Curry: 8-8 FT (100.0%)

Will keep you updated as the season goes. Jesus, 16 free throw attempts.

“No chance.” - Steph Curry when asked if Jimmy Butler has any shot at winning the bet

Before we’re done with GS, a shoutout to Will Richard (5 points, 14 minutes). We tease Kerr all the time about playing these randos, but this kid looks like he can actually play.

TEN) All Luka and Austin

The Lakers are gonna struggle hard while LeBron’s out. They just don’t have any other guys on the team that can create. Luka Doncic (43 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 34.7% USG) and Austin Reaves (26 points, 9 assists, 30.1% USG) scored or assisted on 97 of the Lakers' 109 points. So wild. Marcus Smart (9 points) was the first sub off the bench.

As for DeAndre Ayton’s debut (10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 turnovers), let’s just say it didn’t take long for the Lakers’ fan base to turn on him. Poor guy looked lost out there.

"We just started. This is probably the second game we've played together." - Rui Hachimura on what the difference was for the Lakers

"The trend I see is that we continue to be a terrible third-quarter team." - JJ Redick

The Warriors beat the Lakers 119-109.
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Establish The Run NBA @EstablishRunNBA
Ten Takeaways From 5/2/25

ONE) Kerr Makes a Change

As we’ve seen teams do often this week, Steve Kerr changed his starting lineup, which is fine. Just not the change we expected. Gary Payton Jr. (5 points, 3 rebounds, 20 minutes) replaced Brandin Podziemski (10 points, 7 rebounds, 29 minutes), which raised some eyebrows. I’ve read numerous reasons why. To get Podz in the game when Rockets go zone, to put Sengun in action since GP2 screens for Curry often, or to slow down Fred VanVleet. Whatever the reason, it didn’t work. Not really a surprise either, since that lineup only played five minutes together all season. There was also very little spacing, with two non-shooters surrounding Buddy and Steph. Listen, I’m sure there was a brilliant reason for the decision I haven’t picked up on yet. Steve Kerr is a nine-time NBA champion. I never want to come off like I know better because I simply don’t. I’m just saying it didn’t work. That starting lineup was -5 in about nine minutes. Buddy Hield (0 points, 3 rebounds, 17 minutes) has been a no-show in two straight games, so that could very well be the change in Game 7. Or maybe it’s Jonathan Kuminga?

“It's 100% on the table... We feel like we have a great chance to go down there and win Game 7.” - Steve Kerr on if Kuminga will play in Game 7

TWO) The 4th Quarter

The Rockets' defense in this game was special, especially in the 4th quarter. The Warriors shot 8-of-24 (33.3%) and 1-of-12 (!!!) from three. They made only one shot through the first 8:25. Houston had the Golden State out of rhythm, mixing up schemes and keeping them guessing.

Warriors in the 4th quarter:

Steph Curry: 3 PTS, 1-7 FG, 1-5 3PT
Jimmy Butler: 5 PTS, 0-5 FG, 0-4 3PT
Draymond Green: 3 PTS, 1-2 FG

Rockets scored 22 points off the Warriors' 16 turnovers in Game 6.

“I like our chances. I’ve seen what this group can do over the years. We’ve been in a lot of Game 7s and had a lot of success. Jimmy Butler is Jimmy Butler — he’s been in all these games, one of the most clutch performers in the league. We’ll get ready.” - Steve Kerr on Game 7

“We were a little disappointed that they won the 3rd by three. We let them score 36, that’s way too high for us. Felt we had opportunities to push the lead up like we did in the 4th… We felt we were right there to crack it open. We came out and did that. After giving up a 36-point quarter, other than the last ten that some of their third unit got, we held them to 13 in that quarter, so really good bounce-back defensive quarter... 1-for-16 at the four-minute mark, so we did our job there.” - Ime Udoka on their 4th quarter dominance

THREE) The FVV Series

How clutch has Fred VanVleet been in the last three games of this series?

Game 1: 10 points, 26.3% TS
Game 2: 7 points, 39.4% TS
Game 3: 17 points, 53.9% TS
Game 4: 25 points, 93.0% TS
Game 5: 26 points, 83.1% TS
Game 6: 29 points, 85.5% TS

Just look at the difference between those first three games and his last three. He’s the reason this is going to Game 7. He hasn’t shot the ball well this season (34.5% 3PT, 51.5% TS), but is coming through when needed most. Maybe it’s because of that valuable playoff experience everyone talks about. The best part is that nothing is forced. Seems like he’s making the right play on every possession, whether he’s looking for his shot or finding open teammates. Dude is shooting 66.7% from three on nine attempts per game over their last three. Insanity.

"I am ready and willing when the time comes to step up and make big plays." - Fred VanVleet

FOUR) 31 FUNAKI MINUTES!

It’s no secret how special Steven Adams (17 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks) has been in this series. He’s mattered so much in every game so far. Lemme double-check something real fast. Yeah, this checks out…

Game 1: +4
Game 2: +2
Game 3: +1
Game 4: +16
Game 5: +15
Game 6: +15

EVERY GAME, and like FVV, especially in the last three. The Rockets are +53 with him on the court in this series and -39 with him off. He’s been so dominant in the paint that he’s got Draymond begging for 3-second calls in the postgame pressers now. It’s weird that after all these years, the Warriors’ small-ball stuff is killing them. Steve Kerr even tried the hack-an-Adams strategy to try to force Ime to remove him from the game. He went 9-of-16 (56.3%) from the line, which was good enough for Ime to keep him in. HE PLAYED 31 MINUTES! It’s the first time he’s touched 30 since January 22, 2023. Hey, at least we know he has that in him now.

"He's like a big caveman in this era of small basketball. An old big just roughing everybody up. We're gonna play him until he dies out there." - Fred VanVleet on Steven Adams:

"It's a weird zone. Like a bizarre one, but it works." - Steven Adams on the Rockets' defensive zone that has given the Warriors problems

FIVE) Alpi Keeps Shining

Alperen Sengun (21 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals) hasn’t been shooting the ball well in this series (50.5% TS), but he’s contributing in many other ways. He’s playing excellent defense (107.5 DEF RTG) and crashing the boards (11.5 RPG). His playmaking has been valuable (5.3 APG), and we’ve already talked about how good the double-big lineups have been (30.1 NET RTG). If he could just get that push-shot that he’s in love with going, he’d be unstoppable. He’s leading the Rockets in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this postseason.

And to think, I thought there’d be a chance he could get played off the court.

“I feel like I have to play like this. They took Jalen out of the game; they pressured him. They’re kind of letting me make the play, so I just know I have to play aggressive. So that’s the mindset I go to the game.” - Alperen Sengun

SIX) Dray’s Early Flagrant

Remember when we talked about how Draymond Green (8 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists) avoided getting ejected in Game 4 because the refs gave him a Flagrant 1 instead of a second technical? That might have been the worst thing to happen because he now knows how to work the system a little bit more. He wasted no time getting a Flagrant 1, three minutes into the first quarter in Game 6, for slapping Jalen Green in the back of the head. At that moment, we all had the same thought: Even if he gets a technical in the next 45 minutes, he isn’t going anywhere. Brilliant stuff. Luckily, he never received that tech, but it sure feels like he’s found a loophole. Worth noting that since it’s his second Flagrant 1 of the postseason, he has two points. Accumulating more than three flagrant foul points in the playoffs results in an automatic one-game suspension. So if he happens to commit a Flagrant 2 (2 points) in Game 7, it’s an automatic one-game suspension.

“It’s exciting. It’s for all the marbles. We’ll move on and learn from what we did wrong. It’s obvious what we did wrong… I think Game 7s are fun.” - Draymond Green on Game 7

SEVEN) Steph and Jimmy

Aren’t role players supposed to play better at home in the playoffs? At least that’s what we were told. It sure would have been nice if any of them had played well here.

Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry: 56 points on 40% shooting
Rest of the team: 51 points on 42% shooting

Nobody shot the ball well, and much of that has to do with that brutal 4th quarter, but a little help would have been nice. The next leading scorer on the team was Moses Moody, who scored 13 points in 22 minutes. Curry (29 points, 9-23 FG, 6-16 3PT) had a beautiful stretch in the 2nd quarter where he went on a personal 11-0 run. Didn’t do much besides that. In fact, he had four turnovers in the 1st half that were absolutely killer. Most of them were “What are you doing?!” type passes. I don’t wanna make this into another “thumb post,” but he’s been pretty mediocre this series outside of Game 3.

Playoff Jimmy (27 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists) was unbelievable… for three quarters. His shot-making in this game was insane. I still don’t know he got some of them off, let alone in. It’s a 48-minute game, though. With the rest of the team struggling to score, they couldn’t afford both of them going cold, which is what happened. They have until Sunday to figure shit out.

“They’re playing great. You gotta give them credit. We’re not just rolling over and not competing.” - Steph Curry

“We have to win together, we lose together. But I know we will win together on Sunday… we will be ready to compete on Sunday, and we will make the game go our way… we’re good. We got to focus more on us… We can’t keep focusing on them. - Jimmy Butler

The Rockets beat the Warriors 115-107. Reminder: Out of 288 instances where a team has trailed 3–1, only 13 have managed to reverse their fortunes and clinch the series—a mere 4.5% success rate.

EIGHT) Pop Steps Down

Knew this was coming but it still sucks. Gregg Popovich has stepped down as head coach of the San Antonio Spurs and is transitioning full-time to Team President. Truly, the end of an era with him serving as Spurs coach since 1996. Arguably the greatest professional coach in modern history. Definitely one of the best humans. Wish he could have left on his terms, cause god knows he would have loved to coach Wemby for a few more years. Gonna really miss those IDGAF interviews.

1,422 wins (most all time)
170 playoff wins (3rd most all time)
5x NBA Champion
3x NBA Coach of the Year
17x Coach of the month
1x Team USA Gold Medal
Basketball Hall of Famer

Spurs are hiring assistant coach Mitch Johnson as the franchise’s next head coach. He’s been with the team for a decade now, taking over as interim coach in November. He was 10-18, but we all know how skewed that record was with the injuries they dealt with. I like Mitch, and I know the players do too, but I still find it a bit odd that they went right to him without talking to anyone else. Some big names are out there, like Michael Malone, who has close ties to Popovich and the Spurs. Tells you how highly they think of Johnson. Erik Spoelstra is now the longest active tenured coach in the NBA with a single team.

"While my love and passion for the game remain, I've decided it's time to step away as head coach. I'm forever grateful to the wonderful players, coaches, staff, and fans who allowed me to serve them as the Spurs head coach and am excited for the opportunity to continue to support the organization, community, and city that are so meaningful to me." - Gregg Popovich's statement on stepping down as the Spurs' head coach

“I am truly grateful and honored to receive this incredible opportunity. I am thankful for Coach Pop, RC, Brian, and Peter trusting me to carry on our culture, and I promise to give this responsibility everything I have to make Spurs fans proud.” - Mitch Johnson on being named the Spurs’ head coach

NINE) Grizzlies Hire Iisalo

Mitch Johnson wasn’t the only interim coach to get promoted on Friday. The Memphis Grizzlies have hired Tuomas Iisalo as the franchise’s next head coach. Between Christie, Johnson, and Iiasalo, it’s kinda odd that these teams are jumping right in without interviewing any other candidates. This one really wasn’t all that surprising. Feels like it’s been in the works for a year now. If anything, it makes it clearer that Taylor Jenkins was a dead man walking all along. Iisalo was 4-5 in the regular season and was swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs.

Wheels up for Zach Edey next season.

"I have full confidence in Tuomas serving as head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies going forward. Tuomas' teams at every level have been disciplined, tenacious, and connected on both ends of the floor, consistently exceeding expectations. We look forward to the same in Memphis." - Zach Kleiman on hiring Tuomas Iisalo as the Grizzlies' head coach

TEN) LeBron’s Knee

Not that it matters now, but LeBron wasn’t faking it in Game 5. Exaggerating, yeah, but not faking. If you don’t remember, LeBron banged knees with Donte DiVincenzo early in the 4th quarter. Looked like he got sniped from across the way and stayed on the ground for what felt like hours. As we always do, the internet had fun with his reaction, but there was some truth to it. We just found out that he suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain, which is usually a 3-5 week recovery. So even if the Lakers extended the series, LeBron would have most likely missed Games 6 and 7, jeopardizing his wild streak of playing in 292 consecutive playoff games. Maybe that’ll help Lakers fans get over the loss?

We also just found out that Austin Reaves was dealing with a left big toe sprain during the playoffs, which is usually a 2-4 week injury. He was reportedly not walking on it on his off-days to try to get through the playoffs. That’ll help explain his rough series.

Clippers-Nuggets 7 tomorrow.
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Establish The Run NBA @EstablishRunNBA
Ten Takeaways From 5/1/25

ONE) Clutch Player of the Year

If you weren’t convinced that Jalen Brunson should have won the Clutch Player of the Year award, maybe this game did the job.

Jalen Brunson in Game 6:

40 PTS
4 REB
7 AST
7-8 FT
15-33 FG

He scored almost as many points in the 1st quarter (15) as he had all game in Game 5. Then scored 10 in the 4th, including the game-winning three with five seconds left. He had Ausar on skates, creating about six feet of space before making it—special, special stuff. Maybe the Pistons fans will learn that booing him only makes him stronger. There were a couple of silly flops, but he was just trying to meet his quota. The crowd was chanting, “FLOP PER."

It’s his seventh 40-point playoff game, which ties him with Bernard King for most in Knicks history.

"Jalen's shot, what can you say? He's at his best when his best is needed." - Tom Thibodeau on Jalen Brunson's game-winning shot

TWO) Layup Lines

Mikal Bridges was asked on Tuesday what the Knicks could do to come out stronger out of halftime…

“I don’t know, man…maybe do some layup lines…get everybody out there moving…Had the same situation in Phoenix…I think that's it…Much as we say 'play hard'…still don't get it done…maybe warm up…" - Mikal Bridges

You’ll never believe it, but they actually came out early for halftime warmups and did layup lines. It worked! They went on a 6-0 run immediately and won the 3rd quarter 37-24, led by Mikal’s 11 points. He finished with 25 (74.1% TS). Now, I’m gonna be pissed if they stop.

THREE) Not Enough Ausar

Jalen Brunson was undoubtedly amazing in this game, and he embarrassed Ausar on that game-winner, but that’s not gonna take away the job he did on him for the rest of the game. Had 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 stocks in just 23 minutes. Wasn’t dealing with foul trouble either. He was arguably the Pistons’ best player, and yet JB Bickerstaff decided to sub him out with a little less than four minutes to go. Knicks made a quick 5-2 run led by Brunson before he came back in with 1:23 to go. The rest is history. It just never made any sense. Brunson was 9-of-14 (21 points) when Ausar WASN’T on him. He was 3-of-10 (8 points) when Ausar WAS on him.

"I give Ausar a ton of credit for what he was doing, the effort he put in. He’s guarding one of the most difficult matchups in the NBA. You’ve gotta tip your cap to Brunson … he’s hard to guard and how he can generate space at his size is remarkable." - JB Bickerstaff

“That dude was tough to play against. He’s big-time. I told him straight to his face after the series that he made me work. I’ve got a lot of respect for him.” - Jalen Brunson on Ausar Thompson

FOUR) Gary Trent, Part 2

So, you remember that Pacers closeout game the other night? The one where Gary Trent went off for 33 points and let a clean pass go out of bounds in the final minute? Malik Beasley just went through the same wave of emotions. He had an unbelievable first half, scoring 18 points and making 6-of-11 three-pointers (15 in the 2nd quarter). He brought the Pistons back to life after they were down 14 at the end of the 1st quarter. It was cool to see because of how rough this series had been for him. But then JB Bickerstaff went away from him. He played just nine minutes in the second half, missing two shots. He got subbed out with over nine minutes left in the 4th and wasn’t brought back in until their final possession with the Pistons down three. Cade Cunningham passed it to him on the wing, and the ball went right through his hands. HE WAS AS WIDE OPEN AS YOU COULD GET. Would have had the cleanest shot had he held onto the ball. I’m not trying to defend him or anything, but I gotta imagine it’s hard to check into a game after not playing for almost an entire quarter, with the season on the line, and be ready to take the final shot. Again, NOT TRYING TO DEFEND HIM. I’m just still shocked Bickerstaff didn’t ride him in the second half after how hot he was. Expecting him to get a bag from a desperate team this summer.

What makes it even more shocking is how poorly Tim Hardaway Jr. performed in this game. THJ had more turnovers (4) than baskets (3-11 FG). To his credit, he made two big shots in the 4th, but to not give Malik a couple of his minutes when he struggled that badly? The non-Beasley Pistons were 3-of-21 from three. Plus/minus isn’t everything, but …

Malik Beasley +17
Tim Hardway Jr. -7

Just saying.

"We came in and said look man, it sucks but we had a hell of a year. No one believed in us. Detroit vs Everybody, literally. Even in the playoffs, we continued to play for each other and have each other’s backs, and we live with the results." - Malik Beasley

FIVE) Quite a Debut

Didn’t wanna close the door on the Pistons' season without giving Cade Cunningham his flowers.

Game 1: 21 PTS - 6 REB -12 AST
Game 2: 33 PTS - 12 REB - 3 AST - 2 STL
Game 3: 24 PTS - 7 REB - 11 AST - 2 BLK - 4 STL
Game 4: 25 PTS - 10 REB - 10 AST - 4 BLK
Game 5: 24 PTS - 8 REB - 8 AST - 1 BLK - 2 STL
Game 6: 23 PTS - 7 REB- 8 AST - 1 BLK - 3 STL

He’s tied for the fastest player in NBA history to reach 150p/50r/50a in their playoff career. The Pistons have built something fun. Looking forward to seeing him and the team grow.

"Helping my teammates succeed. That's the thing I get the most joy from." - Cade Cunningham on what he's most proud of this season

The Knicks beat the Pistons 116-113. Game 1 of the Knicks-Celtics series will be played on Monday.

SIX) Clippers Stay the Same… For a Half

Like so many other teams in the playoffs, the Clippers were on watch for a possible lineup change. Ty Lue said he considered making a change to his starters ahead of Game 6 but decided to keep things as they were. The only difference is that there would be a much shorter leash on Kris Dunn, and boy, that leash was short. The Nuggets dared him to beat them again, leaving him open, but he missed all three of his three-point attempts. It felt like a certainty that things would change at halftime, and it did. Nicolas Batum started the second half and changed everything.

Nicolas Batum in Game 6:

6 PTS
5 REB
6 AST
2 STL
3 BLK
0 TO
34 MIN

Batum was always going to be the guy.

"I was just going over the last 24 hours, going over different rotations to try and exploit what they're doing. I thought KD would give us a great defensive start, then we could go small." - Ty Lue on starting Batum in the second half

“I told the guys after the game — KD and Ben still up cheering — it’s about being a team. Whatever it takes to win. And those guys totally understood it… I just wanna say thank you to them.” - Ty Lue on benching Kris Dunn and not playing Ben Simmons

SEVEN) Norman Powell Shirt Night

The Clippers gave out Norman Powell shirts to fans who attended Game 6, so he was under pressure to play well. You can’t be ass on your shirt night. He carried the offense in the third quarter, scoring 11 of his 24 points on 91.7% TS (5-6 FG, 1-2 3PT). Also, hit the biggest three of the game late in the 4th quarter after Russell Westbrook missed a layup to put the Clippers up nine. It felt just like the regular season again. If they’re gonna win Game 7 at Ball Arena on Saturday night, this version of Norm needs to show up.

"That was the emphasis...Every single time I touch the ball, attacking the paint." - Norman Powell

EIGHT) Harden Returns

It’s been a rough couple of games for James Harden. In games 4 and 5, he averaged 13.0 points (49.7% TS), 6.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. It looked like the Nuggets had figured something out, and Harden was starting to live up to his playoff reputation. Well, the allegations gotta be put on hold for at least one night. He was aggressive, taking his most field goal attempts since Game 1. Scored 17 of his game-high 28 points in the 2nd quarter on 103.7% TS (5-6 FG, 2-3 3PT). Also had 6 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 stocks in 47 (!!!) minutes. I mean, we might see the full 48 on Saturday. It’s the first time he’s won an elimination game since the bubble.

“Very impressed. He wants to play every night. He’s in great shape. He trains for these moments. He wants to play… He wanted to play, he wanted to compete, and he brought us home tonight.” - Ty Lue on James Harden playing 47 minutes.

“Got to. Have to. Have to. It is what it is. It’s a part of it. Whatever the team needs. If it’s 47, 48, overtime, whatever. I’m gonna do it.” - James Harden on if he can play 47-48 minutes in Game 7

NINE) The Russell Westbrook Experience

The Clippers are fine with Russell Westbrook (14 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists) beating them. They’ve been giving him space, and so far, he’s made them pay. In the five games he’s played, he’s made 40.7% of his threes. He helped the Nuggets withstand that 2nd quarter from Harden, scoring nine of his own. But as it’s gone all year, you live by Westbrook, you die by Westbrook. As brilliant as he was early in the game, he missed some bunnies later on, including a wide-open dunk and a wide-open lay-up. There were a couple more, and it felt like every time they’d happen, there’d be a huge momentum change. It feels like a roll of the dice every time he’s out there. They just gotta hope they don’t roll snake eyes in Game 7.

TEN) Zubac’s Defense

Nikola Jokic hasn’t played well by his standards in Games 5 and 6. He’d make the Clippers pay whenever they went small, but once Ivica Zubac entered, it was tough sledding. Jokic was 5-of-14 with Zubac as his primary defender, including 1-8 in the second half. He was 6-of-8 against everyone else. His decision-making was poor, which is obviously very unlike him. Even he admitted it.

“He was really good. He was really good. He was making me kind of question my shots.” - Jokic on Zubac’s defense

The other side to it is that he’s not getting many calls, which is understandable if you’ve been watching these playoff games. He attempted just two free throw attempts, tied for the fewest free throws he’s taken in a game since March 2.

“I'm not sure what was happening tonight, but for him to shoot two free throws with the amount of contact that was going on out there, it was absolutely crazy.” - David Adelman

The Clippers beat the Nuggets 111–105.

Saturday gonna be fun as hell.
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