Hedgeye

McCullough: Risk Happens Slowly, Then All at Once

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Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough went short the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) the day before it fell -6%, its worst day since March 2020.

On today’s edition of The Macro Show, Keith said Nasdaq volatility has climbed from 38 to 42, which puts it in the worst of his three volatility buckets.

Keith said it’s not a question of if the $VIX moves into the 30s, it’s when. The top end of the VIX Risk Range is 31.53, so a move there shouldn’t surprise anyone.

He also pushed back on the idea that a 32 VIX offers value.

As Keith put it, that “is like saying I like it when I get in a car accident.”

Volatility regime shifts in Quad 4 confirm Quad 4.

“Risk happens slowly, then all at once.”

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McCullough: “People Are Getting Rinsed”

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Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough says 2026 is the third all-time high bubble cycle peak, after 2000 and 2007.

“Lower highs, big lower highs within Bearish TRADEs and Bearish TRENDs is how it starts,” McCullough said on The Macro Show.

High beta momentum has gone from up 70% to down 15%, which McCullough called “one of the most epic factor crashes in the history of factors.”

A basket of high retail sentiment stocks has gone from up 22% to down 14%.

“People are getting rinsed,” he said.

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There are 123% more condo sellers than buyers, the widest gap since 2013

18-29 year-olds living with a parent:

2019: 37%
2022: 43%
2025: 49%

Four of the six biggest US tech companies posted negative free cash flow last quarter, only $AAPL and $MSFT stayed positive