Hedgeye Asset Management

“Hegseth is the first sacrificial lamb Trump makes.” Hedgeye Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor on the midterm map, the lame duck playbook, and 2027.

0:00 Welcome JT Taylor @HedgeyeDC and the Pre-Midterm Level Set
2:32 The Senate Map, JT’s Range of 49 to 56 With a Median of 53 to 54
4:38 JT’s Top Senate Pickup Chances and Elon Musk at $300 to $400 Million in Texas
7:14 Republicans Came in After Labor Day and Super PACs Are Paying a Premium
11:31 Ticket Splitting Has Dropped From 8 to 10% in 2006 to 2 to 3% in 2024
15:40 Corruption Has Overtaken Affordability as the Top Issue on the Trail
18:40 When We’ll Know, Alaska and Maine Ranked Choice, California Hand Counts
22:22 The House Floor Is 10 to 12 Seats, Ceiling in the Mid 20s, Jeffries Needs 230
26:51 The Four Governor’s Races That Matter for Data Centers
30:28 The Anti-Data Center Narrative Is Fracking All Over Again
37:16 The Lame Duck Playbook, NDAA at $1.15 Trillion and the December 11 Approps
43:10 Hegseth as the Sacrificial Lamb, and the Beginning of a Lame Duck Presidency

Every fund at Hedgeye Asset Management is run by a dedicated portfolio manager. They make the calls through their own process and own the outcomes. Good and bad. @KeithMcCullough does not manage any of our funds. Each fund's track record is public and belongs to its PM.

Hedge fund leverage has tripled since 2020. The top 15 funds are now 12x levered. Our portfolio managers on the smoke coming out of the machine.

0:00 Level Set, S&P Down 5% From ATH and 10-Year at 4.7%
4:05 “You Can Read the World’s Secrets in Yesterday’s Move”
7:07 How Hedge Funds Got Caught Flat-Footed by the Blue Wave
11:14 “Smoke Coming Out of the Machine,” Hedge Fund Leverage Has Tripled Since 2020
17:22 Microsoft Broke the AI Trade, Not the Democrats
19:41 Data Centers, Hinojosa and Shapiro, and the Industrials Caught in the Crossfire
25:06 Quad 4 in 2027, Tough Comps, and the Fed Has to Be on Your Side
30:11 AI Monetization Hits a Wall, Users Push Back on Usage
32:11 Sam’s Non-Consensus Case on the Anthropic S-1
37:03 Everyone Needs to Do the Same Thing, the Race to the Application Layer
44:24 “Siren Song,” Memory Companies Won’t Sell a Dollar for $10 Forever
45:23 Vance Threw Trump Under the Bus on Iran, Capitulation or Escalation

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Fed funds futures are pricing a full rate hike by January, with a 77% chance it comes in December