Stefan Gerlach

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh plans to reduce the number of rate-setting meetings. Changing the frequency of meetings may affect how the Fed sets interest rates in several ways. Fewer meetings make each decision more consequential.

gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/fewer-fed-me…

If a French debt crisis threatened the euro area, I expect the ECB would intervene. Many policies create moral hazard, but the Governing Council would likely judge that the benefits outweigh the costs, including the undesirable incentives.

France’s fiscal problems could trigger a European financial crisis. The ECB’s existing tools may not be enough, but if financial stability is threatened, expect it to invent a new one.

gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/france-will-…

Are euro area governments choosing the right people to lead their central banks? In my latest Substack post, I argue that national priorities may weaken the ECB's Governing Council.

gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/the-ecbs-gov…

Some thoughts on the upcoming MAS decision.
gerlachmacro.substack.com/p/will-the-mas…