@withdelphi can we get an Aristotle?
Steve Jobs predicted ChatGPT in 1985.View quoted post on X
Sean
@IamSeanWisdom
AI Underwriting Product Leader. Founder @ The Caffeine Company.
226 Following 497 Followers 3.7K Posts
Latest posts 5
$WYFI $BTBT
@WhiteFiber_ just posted a video walk through, due to X minimizing reach on post with links, I reposted the video here. @BitDigital_BTBT @SamirTabar
@WhiteFiber_ just posted a video walk through, due to X minimizing reach on post with links, I reposted the video here. @BitDigital_BTBT @SamirTabar
8:49
Extra outtake clip from latest @BG2Pod with Jensen @altcap
Contrary to popular hypersensationalist rhetoric -- that we are in a massive AI glut -- we are likely in a stretch of structural compute shortage.
Google announced in May that tokens had grown 50x y/y, and doubled again by July 2025 (100x) to 1 quadrillion monthly tokens.
In that period - algorithmic and hardware advances improved efficiencies by ~10-15x - which means Google had to increase accelerated compute dedicated to token generation by 3-10x. Our estimate is that Google increased accelerated compute by ~3x during the period - which means that they had to pull compute from training, recommenders, etc to allocate to token generation.
Significant algorithmic advancements (Flash Attention, quantization, MoE), and infrastructure investments (prompt caching, batching) have driven much of that efficiency, but counting on the hardware to get better is something the industry is counting / relying on.
We used to be able to ride Moore's Law / Dennard scaling to improve compute per watt.
But now... we have to rely on $NVDA / hardware ecosystem (Google, $AMD, etc) to drive 2-4x improvement per generation (Huang's Law).
People underestimate the strain of exponentials on human systems - that are hard coded to think linearly...
The total global accelerated compute base is probably ~8 GW of installed capacity on my math and analysts have estimated growth to increase to 10x to ~80 GW globally by 2030.
Even assuming all of that capex gets done, and Nvidia continues to push yearly roadmap (generating 2x y/y performance uplift), the 10x power increase should equate to ~50x increase in compute.
We just had 100x AI usage increase in 1 year from Google's testimony. OpenAI, Google, Anthropic are in structural shortage of compute - each bit they bring online is fully invested in serving their users. And that is without even expanding into true video / world models, robotics, or long horizon thinking to find novel breakthroughs.
What could change this trajectory? If the algorithmic efficiencies we are gaining from new breakthroughs outstrip the exponential increase in current demand -- and FUTURE demand. Investors hyperventilated at DeepSeek's release earlier this year, but their gains were outweighed by the increase in demand created by reasoning.View quoted post on X
$IONQ
Sorry, Martin, this is nonsense. Classical computing excels at simple tasks like 1+1. Quantum computing tackles problems with variable outcomes.
Comparing them is like saying a space shuttle’s inferior because it can’t parallel park, unlike a car.
You can criticize the company’s lack of earnings or high valuation based on speculation—maybe so, we’ll see—but saying it’s fake because quantum takes longer for classical computing questions is flawed.
The same question on ChatGPT takes longer than a calculator, but that doesn’t mean AI is fake computing.
@MartinShkreli
Sorry, Martin, this is nonsense. Classical computing excels at simple tasks like 1+1. Quantum computing tackles problems with variable outcomes.
Comparing them is like saying a space shuttle’s inferior because it can’t parallel park, unlike a car.
You can criticize the company’s lack of earnings or high valuation based on speculation—maybe so, we’ll see—but saying it’s fake because quantum takes longer for classical computing questions is flawed.
The same question on ChatGPT takes longer than a calculator, but that doesn’t mean AI is fake computing.
@MartinShkreli
The $IONQ Forte "Enterprise" 1 can add:
a 2-digit number and a 3-digit number together (with 80% certainty). This costs $80.
It cannot add a 3-digit and 3-digit number. It runs out of space.
This is a $20 billion company.View quoted post on X
