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Caroline Fourest écoutant Boy George chanter “ We will dance again “ sur LCI. Extraordinaire.
3:20
Commerce : « La Chine n'a pas le même objectif que l'Occident » :
lesechos.fr/idees-debats/c…
via @LesEchos
lesechos.fr/idees-debats/c…
via @LesEchos
www.lesechos.fr Commerce : « La Chine n'a pas le même objectif que l'Occident » Avec sa stratégie de domination productiviste, la Chine bouleverse le commerce international. Son modèle contraste avec les économies libérales occidentales et pose des défis majeurs pour l'équilibre... Very nice synthesis
I keep being asked. How long can France go on with budget deficits and increasing debt until we get a crisis? The answer: I cannot tell. Not because I am particularly dumb (this is a separate issue). But because there is a potentially large danger zone, where the crisis may or may not happen, depending on the whims of investors. Given our debt and our deficit, we have probably entered the danger zone.View quoted post on X
If investors continue to be relatively relaxed, they require only a small risk spread, the interest bill may not be too large, and debt, while high, may be sustainable. But, if for some reason, they worry and require a large spread, the interest bill explodes, debt becomes unsustainable, and this triggers a crisis. To be nerdy about it: both equilibria are rational equilibria. Investors beliefs are confirmed in both cases.
The investors’ whims could literally come out of nowhere: Investors waking up in bad mood. More likely they are triggered by some news, a good poll number for an extremist party, a bad supply shock, the failed passage of a law. The news may be small, but it may lead to a very large adjustment, with a sharp spike in the rate. Or it may not. One cannot tell.
The lesson for budget policy? Avoid bad budget news as much as you can. 😊 Provide good budget news, even small ones, as much as you can. 😊 This is good on its own. And it reduces the risk of a shift to the bad equilibrium, the risk of a costly fiscal and potentially financial crisis.
