Geoffrey’s posts are always worth reading, but this one is a must-read. It lays out a really clear high-level hierarchy of safety levels, separated by which standard of rigor they adhere to, from “slapdash empirics” to “unconditional proofs”. The AI industry is unfortunately currently operating at the bottom level.
I think it is really important for the public to understand that it is within society’s power demand the higher levels! Not everything needs formal. verification and mathematical proofs, but
1. It is reasonable to demand that for the riskiest technologies, and
2. There are intermediate standards of rigor that are way better than what we have now.
I think it is really important for the public to understand that it is within society’s power demand the higher levels! Not everything needs formal. verification and mathematical proofs, but
1. It is reasonable to demand that for the riskiest technologies, and
2. There are intermediate standards of rigor that are way better than what we have now.
Lots of conversation around AI risks is about the gap between the unserious of AI labs' methods and how more rigorous industries work: airplanes, nuclear power, AI hardware. It would help a ton to lift AI to that level, but it is unclear even that level would be enough. 🧵View quoted post on X