The votes are already in. It will be Schwake. I think it should be Turner.
Turner should have also started the World Cup, and he should currently be on the U.S. roster as a mentor/elder statesman if not the outright starter.
#NERevs #MLS
Turner should have also started the World Cup, and he should currently be on the U.S. roster as a mentor/elder statesman if not the outright starter.
#NERevs #MLS
Matt Turner should win MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, and the numbers deserve a closer look alongside the defenses these two played behind.
Brian Schwake had an excellent season. But his protection included Andy Najar, Jeisson Palacios and Maxwell Woledzi—ALL THREE finalists for Defender of the Year.
That matters when comparing clean sheets and goals conceded. Those numbers reflect an entire defensive unit, including how effectively it prevents chances from reaching the goalkeeper.
Here’s the regular-season comparison, using @FotMob stat figures:
• Saves: Turner 138 | Schwake 92
• Save percentage: Turner 74.6% | Schwake 78.6%
• Goals prevented: Turner 14.09 | Schwake 13.00
• Clean sheets: Turner 6 | Schwake 16
• Goals conceded: Turner 47 | Schwake 25
• Penalties saved: Turner 0 | Schwake 3
• Starts: Turner 34 | Schwake 33
Schwake’s advantages deserve recognition. A higher save percentage, 16 clean sheets and three penalty saves make this a legitimate debate.
But Turner made 46 more saves—50% more than Schwake—with only one additional start. That is a substantial difference in workload.
More saves alone don’t automatically mean better goalkeeping. That’s where goals prevented becomes important: it estimates how many goals a goalkeeper stopped beyond expectation based on the shots he faced.
Turner finished ahead in that category despite having less defensive protection, in my view. He wasn’t simply busier; he delivered more total shot-stopping value by that measure.
American Soccer Analysis offers another comparison. As reported by @benwright, its model credited Turner with 15.55 goals saved, compared with Schwake’s 13.57. Different models produce different totals, but both comparisons favor Turner.
The gap is close enough to respect Schwake’s case. It also makes it difficult to justify treating clean sheets or goals conceded as the deciding factors without accounting for Nashville’s exceptional backline.
Having three Defender of the Year finalists in front of him doesn’t diminish Schwake’s ability. It does mean his defensive environment belongs in the discussion.
For me, Turner’s heavier workload and advantage in goals prevented outweigh Schwake’s edge in clean sheets and save percentage.
Schwake had an outstanding season. Turner gets my vote for Goalkeeper of the Year.
📸: @AdrianHeinsohn
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