Kevin Flanagan

did those other countries get downgraded by Moody's and pass a big, beautiful bill or is it just a global aversion to long duration

Interestingly, one could say that ending QT completely could be akin to a rate cut of sorts, and then re-starting QE could serve as another.
Our advice is to stay tuned and try not to get too caught up in the day-to-day headlines and tweets that are out there because this is going to be a very fluid situation

Remember, the key here is for financial and non-financial companies to be able to fund themselves. While there has been some tightening up in conditions in recent trading sessions, there is not any sign of worrisome funding pressures at this point.

some thoughts on the Treasury market turbulence...i think it's a confluence of factors all coming together...reversal of the flight-to-quality rally, resulting in bets it would continue to be unwound, selling to raise cash (reversal of the basis trade)...NOT active retaliation by China. They hold too many Treasuries hence it would be counterproductive (losses)...Japan and China have been reducing UST holdings over the last year but it is orderly and rates still fell at times during this period
if it got to the point of creating 'plumbing' issues in the funds market, the Fed could stop QT in Treasuries altogether and start to re-buy (QE)...they wouldn't necessarily have to cut rates

I read a story where some one asked: if the US raising tariffs produces recession fears and higher inflation concerns for the US, then wouldn't the same potential results apply to countries/regions that impose retaliatory counter/tariffs, i.e. raises there existing tariffs, like the EU?