Mark Ritchie II

To all my followers:

So I just spent a brief time away in the mountains reflecting on the last 15-20 years with my best friend (she also happens to be my wife) and here's what I concluded at least for now when it comes to posting here going forward.

I will try and avoid posting things that I do not think will be helpful in the market. The reality in my view is that most of twitter is full of noise, mostly by people who have views/opinions that don't help anyone make actual $ in the market.

I am humbled by many of the compliments I've received here and other places (most recently our annual gala) that what I've been teaching is helping both on the MPA platform and here as well. That is my goal. I've done well and want to try and give knowledge to those in search of it. I'm the product of a few great traders influence and trying to do the same for those interested.

I will not respond any longer to trolls, skeptics or critics. If you don't like me or what I'm saying do us both a favor and unfollow me. See Teddy above...'it isn't the critic who counts.' I'm not listening or going to respond as life is just too short and honestly I feel sorry for anyone who feels the need to project that kinda stuff on any social media platform.

I also want to talk more about generosity and the need for it as people learn to grow in their wealth. As what does a man gain to earn the world and in the end 'forfeit his soul.' I have much more to say on this in time and going forward but a recent talk I did on this was very WELL received and only demonstrated what I believe to be a deficit at least in peoples thinking in this area.

I'm going to be posting more examples of real trades and post analysis of both winners & losers. I have more losses so I'll probably be posting more of those but simply so people can see how I've handled things and how I try and continue to improve on process and risk management as ideas are wildly overrated.

Lastly (sorry got a little long) I put the 'man in the arena' up there because my wife gave it to me many years ago when I got started on this journey. I've been thinking about what Teddy called 'a worthy cause' and I think investing in others (both generally and personally) is a good example of one going forward. I could be wrong and fail to do a good job but if so I'll attempt to do so 'while daring greatly.'

Blessings.
MR2

For follow up, we had a valid FTD on Nasdaq yesterday. Today news was bad ($NVDA) and they were able to take Nasdaq green which is also good, watching to see how we close today and the week. After FTD I try and dip a toe or two in the water and see if I can find any footing as that's the best way for me to keep an open mind is putting on a small position and seeing if I can make any headway.

A quick note on distribution:

If you look at all the major indices (take your pick $SPY, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ) they are all rallying back into Thursdays gap lower. Bigger issue though is this dynamic where distribution (heavier selling on down days) has been dominating.

The big key here is to understand that institutions drive the market and they have been net sellers for weeks. It is very possible last week was the final puke, but the key here is that institutions sell when they can not necessarily when they want to so IF there is more supply it is likely to come in days/weeks. This is also why follow through days that fail tend to fail pretty quickly because that supply starts to hit the market and overwhelm the short term demand that rallied the market.

Nasdaq is already off -15% which is a healthy correction but there's no accumulation in sight yet. Keep in mind too that in bigger corrections and bear markets lots of FTD attempts fail so the key is to be patient and not obsessed about getting the lows. If this market is going to stabilize and trend higher it will need to stabilize first and that means the distribution dominant theme needs to subside.

General Market Observations/thoughts:

We are bouncing to start a new week after no boogeymen showed up over the weekend. For me this is a pretty simple 'don't do anything' moment. A few reasons why and things I'm looking at in no specific order.

1. Markets got short term oversold, a bounce here is normal regardless of where we are going (new highs/lows) in the next few weeks. VIX ripped, put/call had a small spike which says short term things got stretched.

2. This is where I watch the rally attempt to see if we get any volume. Today couldn't be a valid FTD but impressive volume would be a plus, ensuing days would be better. Looking at prior analogs of the failed breakouts I posted here (x.com/MarkRitchie_II…)
the rally's never took out the prior swing highs and only last 3-7 days before then turning back down (Study $QQQ Feb-Apr 26', Feb-Apr 25' and Q4 18'). Distribution has been dominating the tape so waiting to see that character change.

3. Rotation has been the beast of burden here and toughest part for a LOT of traders. So in this rally is it just the beaten up crap that rips, do we get any signs of new leadership? Way too early to tell but would like to at least see Biotech hold as it's the one growthy area hanging in there.

4. For fun posted the $SPY as every technician out there starts drawling lines & levels as if they mean anything. In my experience levels don't mean much however in my career I've noticed that the market LOVES to undercut or scare people at these levels so my take would be this $730-715 level is ripe for a nice undercut if things turn back down.

5. Lastly doing the weekend work I found very little ideas so there isn't much to do. I may do another post on stocks I'm watching but those lists can change SO fast given the volatility. I have a few stale longs, am short $SPY from a few weeks ago but holding a decent slug of cash and keeping an open mind.

The best news from yesterday...

Sentiment has been very misleading for awhile however yesterday we did see at least a spike in some put buying which is at least a sign that there is some fear out there.

This has been a bit misleading in the wake of 0dte last few years but for reference I believe this hit 2:1 during the depths of Covid so the risk with any overbought/sold type indicator is that the rubber band can stretch a lot further before snapping back.