Matteo Spinosa

Last week I paid 0.18 cbBTC to express a view on lower Bitcoin Difficulty in February 2027 (see below).

Today I could sell that position at 0.26. That is a 44% gain in less than a week.

I am holding.

Yes, I could still lose my entire premium at expiry. But this is exactly why Bitcoin hashrate is such a great underlying to trade.

You do not need to be a miner or own an ASIC.

You just need a view on where Difficulty is going, and a market willing to price that view

On 29 October difficulty jumped 5.5% to 148.4T.

Now blocks are coming every 10 minutes 40 seconds instead of 10min - so Friday's adjustment is tracking about 6.25% lower, around 139T.

Hashrate does not moves in a straight line and Bitcoin miners are the best positioned to trade this volatility.

"Will Bitcoin Difficulty be above 137.2T on 11 December?" was one of the best markets to trade in October.

The market implied probability moved from:
- 40% on 1 October, when Difficulty was 132.8T.
- 82% on 31 October, when Difficulty was 148.4T.

A 2x in indicative BTC value. A potential 105% trading profit in one month!

Looking at the chart: no spikes. Just the market repricing the probability of an outcome.

This is why, in my view, Bitcoin Difficulty is a Bitcoin-native underlying worth trading.

Not financial advice. Midpoint prices.

#hashrate

Bitcoin miners could earn a 37% return in BTC in just three months using your existing hashrate.

A short thread.

Update: I sold part of this position today at 0.2673. That is a 48.5% return in 8 days.

I wanted to hold, but I was demoing Doefin to a miner :-)

I put some of the proceeds into a position that pays out if difficulty is above 129.5T in about a month. Bought at 0.9393, so about 6.5% if it pays (64% annualised).

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE