Matthew Barnett (@MatthewJBar)

I'm not convinced we'll see an intelligence explosion within 2 years, but many seem to be converging on that view.

As we get closer, I think we'll likely see a wild divergence between insiders who think we're mere weeks from the end of the world, and outsiders living normally.

Benjamin Todd Verified account @ben_j_todd 13h

The dumbest possible way to model the intelligence explosion says you get there in about a year. But this seems to line up with more sophisticated models (like from the AI Futures Project).

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Matthew Barnett @MatthewJBar 2d

I seriously doubt that tech companies could have avoided much of the AI backlash by practicing better PR.

Most people simply don't care about or put much weight on what companies say in their public statements.

Darren Marble Verified account @darrenmarble 2d

A lot of the backlash against AI is due to a simple problem:

The people running the big AI companies are terrible, embarrassingly bad communicators.
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Matthew Barnett @MatthewJBar Sep 17

In my experience, the key distinction between those who embrace AI progress and those who want to stop it often comes down to whether they view AI as an extension of humanity or a competitor to humanity.

Matthew Barnett @MatthewJBar Sep 10

I suspect the Covid-AI analogy will fit our policy response too:

In both cases, cheap, well-targeted interventions are justified (vaccines, better RL environments).

Yet the public will go further than warranted and demand costly, sweeping action (lockdowns, pausing AI).

Alec Stapp Verified account @AlecStapp Sep 9

In the COVID-AI analogy, the last 24 hours feel like March 11, 2020, when Tom Hanks tested positive for COVID & the NBA suspended its season.

- 120 million views on @hilbertspaess’s resignation

- @DKokotajlo on Rogan’s podcast

- @paulfchristiano joins OpenAI board

The transition moment from “risk experts have been talking about” to “risk everyone is talking about.”
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Matthew Barnett @MatthewJBar Jul 24

I support laissez-faire policy for open-weight models, in large part because it intensifies competition, especially with China, and therefore makes pausing or regulating AI less politically feasible.

Jensen Huang Verified account @JensenHuang Jul 24

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.

AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weigh…

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Matthew Barnett

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