Merchant Seven

Prediction markets have mastered one thing: turning attention into orders. The bigger question is: can they turn attention into durable trading flow?

The first trade is only the beginning. For prediction markets to scale, attention needs to move through multiple layers:

Attention → Funded Account → Market Access → Venue & Clearing → Liquidity → Resolution & Integrity → Local Permission

Today, M7 Research is launching From Haaland to Hormuz: How Public Attention Is Turning Into Trading Infrastructure.

The report maps the seven layers that determine what happens after the first order. Which of these layers will become the biggest challenge or the biggest competitive advantage as prediction markets continue to grow?

Read the full report in the thread.

Finding the right influencer partner is only half the equation.

What are you paying them to do: create tutorials, bring in new customers or support a community?

Those contributions call for different agreements. Define the work before deciding the compensation.

Prop firms can pay for a sale without acquiring a new customer.

Affiliate programs may reward first purchases, recurring purchases or resets. A referral report shows who gets credit under the rules. It does not, by itself, prove who created the demand.

We're excited to announce our investment in PropHub, which will join our Harbor accelerator.

The partnership pairs working capital with hands-on operating support to expand PropHub’s product suite, strengthen distribution and support growth beyond Latin America.

What if a brokerage could own more of the trader journey from the very beginning?

It’s a question worth asking as the line between prop trading and traditional brokerage continues to evolve. For years, brokerages have largely entered the relationship when a trader is ready to put their own capital to work. But what happens if the brokerage moves further upstream?

Building a prop trading arm could give a brokerage the ability to engage traders much earlier, before they are ready to fund a traditional brokerage account. The journey could look something like:

Evaluation → Simulated Trading → Funded Account → Payout → Live Brokerage

Instead of waiting for a trader to arrive at the final stage, the brokerage could build a relationship throughout the entire progression. That creates potential advantages across the business:

• Earlier customer acquisition
• A longer trader lifecycle
• More opportunities to monetize engagement
• First party insight into trader behavior
• A direct path from funded trading to live capital
• Greater control over the technology and customer experience
• The ability to build a brand around the entire trader journey

But building a prop arm also means taking on more of the infrastructure, operations, technology, risk management, customer support and regulatory considerations that come with running that part of the business.

That is where the strategic decision gets interesting. A brokerage could build the prop capability internally, partner with an established prop firm, or create a model that combines both. The right answer may depend less on the product itself and more on what the brokerage wants to own.

Does it want to own the:
- customer acquisition?
- trader relationship?
- technology?
- economics?
- transition into live capital?

Prop trading may be more than another product a brokerage adds to its offering. It could be a way to enter the trader journey earlier, build the relationship sooner, and create a path toward live capital from day one.