Chilly through the weekend but another warm up is expected next week here in the DC region. Middle to upper 60s expected later next week through next weekend as well.
Next stronger cold outbreak then continues to look like right around Thanksgiving. What's too hard to say at this stage is...
(1) - Intensity. Details on the strength, location, and duration of the Alaska/Canada ridge spike matter here, as well as if there is any Pacific-North American (+PNA) component.
(2) - Duration. Most models agree on cold but the polar vortex is forecast to start regaining strength around this time as well. You can see the TPV mostly locked up to the polar latitudes, as least out of the AIFS. Still a strong Pacific jet signal as well, which would continue to flood the Lower 48 with "milder" (still cool to chilly, just maritime air mass compared to sustained, land/ice driven polar cold) air from time to time suggesting stronger cold pushes may be hard to sustain for too long. (see tweet 2 below)
(3) - Strom. Certainly a storm signal on the AIFS (as least for interior/northern areas) and I would suspect that just about every stronger cold push this season come with a storm threat, so expecting a busy season in that regard. But who gets snow and who gets rain will have to be worked out. We're talking an 11-15 day pattern here. As we saw with the storm this week, upper-level features will still shift, and surface features will follow suit as we get closer. Don't buy surface storm tracks shown at this range, though I'll show this run below for context. (see tweet 3 below)
Next stronger cold outbreak then continues to look like right around Thanksgiving. What's too hard to say at this stage is...
(1) - Intensity. Details on the strength, location, and duration of the Alaska/Canada ridge spike matter here, as well as if there is any Pacific-North American (+PNA) component.
(2) - Duration. Most models agree on cold but the polar vortex is forecast to start regaining strength around this time as well. You can see the TPV mostly locked up to the polar latitudes, as least out of the AIFS. Still a strong Pacific jet signal as well, which would continue to flood the Lower 48 with "milder" (still cool to chilly, just maritime air mass compared to sustained, land/ice driven polar cold) air from time to time suggesting stronger cold pushes may be hard to sustain for too long. (see tweet 2 below)
(3) - Strom. Certainly a storm signal on the AIFS (as least for interior/northern areas) and I would suspect that just about every stronger cold push this season come with a storm threat, so expecting a busy season in that regard. But who gets snow and who gets rain will have to be worked out. We're talking an 11-15 day pattern here. As we saw with the storm this week, upper-level features will still shift, and surface features will follow suit as we get closer. Don't buy surface storm tracks shown at this range, though I'll show this run below for context. (see tweet 3 below)
