Lance Lambert

In the morning, ResiDay 2026 attendees will get our 46-page report looking ahead to the 2027-2029 housing market

Once the event is over, I'll make sure all ResiClub members (paid tiers) get a digital copy as well

Some of the things unveiled in this particular report I've been working since 2021

Down 44 bps from the early October high

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 7.17%

Same day a year ago: 6.37%

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10-year Treasury yield today: 4.84%
Mortgage spread today: 233 bps

Home price shift since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in mid-2022

--> @ResiClub_HQ doodles show some of the greatest concentrations of weakness since then. Not every pocket has the same story

--> TX and FL is largely downstream of the post-boom cyclical cooling (bigger boom, bigger bust). While Louisiana is not (they barely saw any boom)

--> While some areas in the Bay Area are still down from peak (in particular, in condos), San Francisco proper saw some notable upward pricing pressure this year from AI wealth boom spillover. That's also starting to push into certain pockets of Marin County and Alameda County.

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Institutional giant Invitation Homes sold 3x as many single-family homes as it bought last quarter—and it’s using the cash to buy back its own stock

"Since December of last year, our average gross sales price has been approximately $460,000 per home. Meanwhile, at the prices at which we’ve been buying back our own stock, the market is valuing our homes at only $280,000 each. It’s one thing to say our stock is undervalued; it’s another to act on it again and again. And that’s what we’ve done. This past year, we’ve repurchased nearly $1 billion of our stock, which represents 6% of our shares outstanding, funded in large part by proceeds from home sales." - Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes, said on their October 29, 2026 earnings call

Tanner added that: "For us to do something beyond share repurchase right now, it has to be really compelling. And right now, share repurchase has been by and large our most compelling use of capital over the past four quarters."

Chart @ResiClub_HQ

ResiDay 2026 is tomorrow in NYC 🏡📊

We're nearing seating capacity this year. Last-minute ticket buyers should go here: luma.com/nfzdfyr5
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