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Nicolas Colin
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Head of Research at Vsquared Ventures. Writing The @ArdenLetter. Also @CurrenPower with @mariekeflament. Transatlanticist. Views my own.
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🇺🇸 I don't know why anyone is spending so much time and bandwidth entertaining the possibility of JD Vance winning the 2028 presidential election.
Of all the vice presidents who became president:
• 9 were elevated through succession: 8 after a president died, 1 after a resignation.
• 9 sitting VPs became major-party presidential nominees. Only 4 won: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, and George H.W. Bush.
Of those four, two were Founding Fathers. One won in the 19th century. Only one in the 20th. None in the 21st.
• There is one precedent for a party recovering from a midterm rout and winning the presidency two years later with a new candidate. But it dates back (1874-1876 😅), and that candidate was Rutherford B. Hayes, a governor, not the sitting VP.
In sum, the historical record is not particularly encouraging for vice presidents with presidential ambitions, especially when their party has just suffered a major midterm defeat. Stop deluding yourself.
Of all the vice presidents who became president:
• 9 were elevated through succession: 8 after a president died, 1 after a resignation.
• 9 sitting VPs became major-party presidential nominees. Only 4 won: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, and George H.W. Bush.
Of those four, two were Founding Fathers. One won in the 19th century. Only one in the 20th. None in the 21st.
• There is one precedent for a party recovering from a midterm rout and winning the presidency two years later with a new candidate. But it dates back (1874-1876 😅), and that candidate was Rutherford B. Hayes, a governor, not the sitting VP.
In sum, the historical record is not particularly encouraging for vice presidents with presidential ambitions, especially when their party has just suffered a major midterm defeat. Stop deluding yourself.
.@DavidLammy on @VP:View quoted post on X
“If I were advising anyone hoping to be on the Democrat ticket in 2028 I would tell them this: do not underestimate J.D. Vance.”
thetimes.com/article/cf0e7c…
This 👌
Is this why European and Chinese car manufacturers are flocking to Spain to build new electric vehicle factories and transform existing ones? Spain’s massive investment in renewable energy is paying off. By reducing its dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels and producing increasingly cheap, clean electricity, Spain is becoming one of Europe’s most competitive locations for industrial manufacturing. What was once seen as a disadvantage is turning into a major competitive advantage for the Spanish economy.View quoted post on X
reuters.com/business/energ…
This 🎯
There is an alternate universe where Elon Musk stopped obsessing about shaving off another half second for 0-60.View quoted post on X
Instead he went all in to produce cheapest possible normie family SUV. Like Henry Ford had done century ago. He relentlessly reviewed every inch of the car and challenged his teams why it cannot be produced 10% cheaper every 3 months. He said he wouldn’t stop until EVs were way cheaper than gas cars.
By 2026, half of the cars in US were transitioned to electric. People didn’t cared about gas prices at the pump. Inflation was under control and blue tsunami didn’t happen.
One reason is macro imbalances: the world, including Europe, sends its capital to the US, where it is deployed, including in non-US companies.
For a European company seeking to raise late-stage capital, flipping to the US is rational: every US asset becomes a magnet for capital because of those macro imbalances, and flipping turns the European company into a US asset.
Cc @drnovac
See: ardenletter.com/p/the-wests-ca…
For a European company seeking to raise late-stage capital, flipping to the US is rational: every US asset becomes a magnet for capital because of those macro imbalances, and flipping turns the European company into a US asset.
Cc @drnovac
See: ardenletter.com/p/the-wests-ca…
www.ardenletter.com The West’s Carry Trade Against Itself Europe saves; America inflates; China builds. “Europe doesn’t necessarily have a founder-quality problem - it has a founder-retention and company-scaling problem. The continent is a talent-exporting ecosystem, and has been for a long time, while the US captures a disproportionate share of the economic value created by that talent.” sundaycet.substack.com/p/sequoia-outView quoted post on X
