Pantera Capital

Alex Blania's prediction: within three months it will be completely impossible to spot that you are talking to a deepfake, and impossible for any software to catch it.

@alexblania (CEO & Co-Founder of @tfh_technology) joined @Cosmo Jiang on Stateful to talk about proof of human on an internet run by agents:

- Why @worldnetwork is working with Zoom, Reddit, and the big banks
- Video models just hit 60 FPS, which makes real-time deepfakes possible
- More than 50% of Cloudflare's traffic is now agents
- Why advertisers may end up being the biggest accelerant of all
- Whether we already have AGI, and what two gigawatts a week of new compute does next

We’ve been investing in the entrepreneurs building the future since 2003.

We look for founders who are resilient, and we’ve learned that founders look for investors who are too.

Embracing volatility and standing alongside our founders through every market is what draws the best ones to work with us.

It goes beyond capital. They’re trusting us to be their partner for the life cycle of their company.

Money, markets, and machines.

That’s where Pantera is investing, and our October Portfolio Spotlight shows two companies building at that intersection:

→ @FissionXYZ makes tokenized funds easier to sell. Rather than waiting on redemption windows that can stretch to ~200 days, eligible investors can access their capital in 90 seconds or less.

→ @verantaxyz (Lumena Labs) brings crypto, stocks, currencies, metals, and more into a single wallet. Its new developer tools let AI agents connect to the same markets as human traders.

Read the full Spotlight: panteracapital.com/portfolio-spot…

In an AI compute short squeeze, everyone in the stack looks smart. That doesn’t tell you who earns durable long-term returns.

You can be right on demand and still own the wrong businesses.

Today we estimate that every incremental GW of data center capacity currently generates $40-50bn of revenue across the stack.

Data centers are under-earning (~$2.2mn/MW) relative to the value they unlock at the token factory layer (~$40mn+/MW).

Frontier models face real pricing pressure from open-source and the hyperscalers. A 40% token-price cut can push standalone inference near breakeven — while hyperscalers still make money on the hardware.

The picture will look very different in 6–12 months. Energy capacity, tokens per watt, model-layer competition, and financing are all in motion.

We built a dynamic tool to track how it plays out.

This map will look different in 6-12 months. Four forces to watch:

- Energy, the most acute bottleneck today
- More tokens per watt from better hardware and software
- Rising competition at the model layer
- Financing all this capex

So we open-sourced our model. Input your assumptions and watch how value shifts across the stack.

Tokenization does not create liquidity. Somebody has to underwrite the risk.

Jon Shaffer and @steveonchain (Fission, @FissionXYZ) join Stateful, hosted by Franklin Bi, as we announce our investment leading their Series A:

- $18 trillion in private markets, still running on paper and subscription agreements

- Fission prices duration risk, not NAV. Asset managers retain control over their own valuations.

- The market is capped at 6% to 7% yields because that is all you get with baked-in liquidity

- The goal: double-digit returns with daily liquidity

- Hot take: CLARITY failing in Congress may be the best thing that could have happened to tokenization

01:00 Origin Stories and Why Tokenization Doesn't Create Liquidity
05:50 The Series A and the $500 Billion Semi-Liquid Market
13:00 Why Private Markets Instead of Public Equities
19:15 Pricing Duration Risk Instead of Repricing NAV
24:55 Why Private Markets Need Their Own Venue
38:15 AI Pricing, Portfolio Construction, and Agentic Rebalancing
45:25 Hot Take: Why the CLARITY Act Failing Helps Tokenization