PredictionMarketTrader

Bernard Verified account @bernardbulletin · 4h

Good morning. Several midterm races remain uncalled, including Senate seats in AK and MS, but the drama today is on Capitol Hill, where votes will be held in Republican leadership contests and the impeachment of Pete Hegseth.

Senate Rs are meeting now to either pick their minority leader or delay the election. Having no publicly announced challenger so far, Thune is expected to win.

Later this afternoon House Rs will decide between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan for minority leader, Speaker Johnson having withdrawn in the aftermath of the election shock. The race is expected to be tight; Jordan has a 65-35 edge on Kalshi.

A procedural vote on impeachment is expected after 5:30. If Johnson can't find a majority to kill the question, voting on the articles will begin by tomorrow at the latest. Markets assign an ~80% chance Hegseth is impeached. 🪿

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GoldenPants13 Verified account @goldenpants013 · 19h

This week @Sports__Proj and I welcome one of the biggest election traders in the world, @iabvek, to the podcast. This will be as good a midterm post-mortem as I could have hoped for. Leave your questions in the comments below!

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