Predge

Settlement risk on prediction markets, measured.

1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026: 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets. Of 2,543 settled disputed markets, 853 (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal.

Signed, verifiable records. Free API: predge.io

Predge is partnering with @novicorpus, a fellow Arc accelerator team.

Novi gives an AI agent a legal body and a public record. Predge checks what the agent delivers and signs a verdict.

Who answers for an agent, and whether its work passed.

30-day pilot on Arc testnet.

Dispute of the week #2: Polymarket's "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?"

On 21 Oct someone proposed Yes with a 500 USDC.e bond, over ten days before the deadline. Disputed 10 seconds later. Re-proposed, disputed again 48 s later. The outcome went to a UMA vote.

Our host, Railway, emailed customers at 01:03 UTC on 22 Oct: an unauthorized party may have accessed customer env vars, some in decrypted form.

Our product is signed records. Our signing key lived in an env var, so we treated it as compromised. Here is what we did:

Dispute of the week #1: Polymarket's "Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?"

$5.5M open interest on 18 Oct. The Yes proposal was disputed twice and the outcome went to a UMA token-holder vote. It resolved Yes on 20 Oct at 00:30 UTC.