Robert A. Pape

“Pape’s book presents a critically important and insightful analysis of the dangerous realities of internal divisions that destroy security and governance.”—Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and United States senator

The voters have spoken on the Iran war.

Washington’s three options (regime change, full withdrawal, endless blockade) all end in economic disaster.

In 1947, Kennan gave America one word that won the Cold War: regional balancing and containment.

America needs that kind of strategy again — Here it is

20+ Russian ships. One month. Drone parts and explosives, straight to Iran

Saturday, CENTCOM moved to cut that lifeline

Stopping it means hitting Russian ships with Russian sailors aboard.

Americans and Russians, in each other’s line of fire — and the coming dangers

On Nov. 4, I named 3 signals that Trump is about to escalate the Iran war

48 hours later, the first one flashed: “minor” US strikes on Iran’s air defenses

Tehran is now reportedly handing out iodine pills

One light is red — Two to go

Nixon: 67% in Jan. 1973. Resigned at 24%.

Trump after Tuesday: 38%. On Nixon’s curve, that’s the summer of 1973.

Nixon’s worst was still ahead: a Mideast war, an oil shock, a nuclear alert.

What’s next for Trump, new analysis at Escalation Trap