Quantus Insights

October’s jobs report came in much stronger than expected. The economy added 165,000 jobs against expectations of about 65,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, and previous months were revised up by another 84,000 jobs.

Manufacturing continues is expansion. Factory employment rose by 19,000 in October and is up 101,000 since December.

The ISM manufacturing index climbed to 55.5, its tenth straight month of expansion, with production at its strongest level since November 2021.

That’s a robust reading by any measure. It doesn’t mean Americans aren’t feeling years of higher prices, but there’s no getting around the strength of these numbers.

Where Texas moved most in 2026.

Rio Grande Valley and border: Starr +72, Zapata +63, Maverick +60, Webb +49, Hidalgo +49, Cameron +44. The 2024 Hispanic shift to Trump fully reversed and then some.

Big metros and suburbs: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend all in the 20s to 30s.

Least movement: rural Panhandle and West Texas, 7 to 10 points, but still toward Talarico everywhere.

ELECTION DAY FORECAST | Nov 3, 2026

Polls close in hours. Final Quantus model run, inputs frozen 4pm CT.

Senate:
🔵 Democrats 64%
🔴 Republicans 29%
⚪️ Too close to call 6%.

House: Democrats 94%.
🧵

QUANTUS INSIGHTS | TEXAS SIZE MODEL

7.72M Texans have already voted. Our Texas Size Model takes that early vote, the voter file, and 2018–2024 turnout history to estimate who’s left and how they vote.

Baseline: Paxton +0.9 at the median. He wins 58% of 4,000 simulations. Abbott +3.6, wins 81%.

The Senate race is a coin flip. The rest of this thread is why. Shift one assumption and the same model hands it to Talarico.

TEXAS EARLY VOTE | Primary history tracks county lean.

Deep blue counties: 47.6% of early voters have Dem-only primary history, 16.0% GOP-only.

R+40 counties: 55.1% GOP-only, 13.5% Dem-only.

R+5 to R+20 counties are nearly even, 30.9% to 30.1%.

Primary history is a voter file record, not candidate choice.