Rosemary Kelanic

"The Real U.S. Energy Security Problem -- And How to Fix It" is finally out and available OPEN ACCESS.

Written before the Iran War, it explains why the U.S. is *more vulnerable* to oil shocks than China, Russia and the EU.

Best thing I've written on oil in 15+ yrs of study.
doi.org/10.1080/016366…

The Iran War is "a slog" that could last years, I told @AKDay89 from @amconmag.

Despite months of U.S. attack, Iran can continue striking tankers in the Gulf indefinitely -- potentially making $100/barrel oil endemic going forward.👇

youtu.be/qUwxEVzvQYo?si…

Had a great discussion with @AKDay89 on the Battle for Hormuz and why oil prices remain stubbornly high despite increasing oil flows from the region.

Check on my latest thoughts:
youtu.be/qUwxEVzvQYo?si… via @YouTube

The U.S. has dedicated 30% of its deployed navy to the Middle East to keep Persian Gulf oil flowing at $100/barrel.

Does that seem like a victory? 🤔

Oil is flowing through Hormuz, and prices are $100/barrel.

That’s not a contradiction.

Oil is moving *because* prices are $100/barrel.

That’s the risk premium necessary for crews to risk their lives and insurers to underwrite it.

$100/barrel also makes land routes through Syria economical.

Without US naval assistance, the market clearing prices for oil would be even higher.

But is it really a US victory for prewar oil flows to resume at $100/barrel instead of the $60-70/barrel we had before the Iran War?

Especially when we have to devote 30% of deployed USN vessels to achieve $100/barrel oil?