Democrats are zooming ahead in the national generic ballot since the start of September, and their lead has expanded to 8.2%.
RacetotheWH
@RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.
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Heads up RacetotheWH fans, I'm at the Knicks Parade today to celebrate the championship, so there won't be any new polls added today. We will be back up to date on Friday!
There are some races where a regular forecast isn't going to do the job. in Vermont - Governor Phill Scott wins by overwhelming margins in a D+30 state every time. So we're changing the forecast - and giving way more weight to Scott's performance last election.
2028 Democratic Primary Polling Update:
For months, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have dominated the race. Now, both have fallen below 20%, while Pete Buttigieg has surged to almost 15%, followed closely behind by AOC at 12%.
For months, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have dominated the race. Now, both have fallen below 20%, while Pete Buttigieg has surged to almost 15%, followed closely behind by AOC at 12%.
Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D+7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025.
