Mentored by the founder of CANSLIM. Co-authored one of the 'Model Books of Greatest Stock Market Winners' at WON + Co. Co-founder @TraderLion & @Deepvue
Today marked Day 3 of the latest rally attempts in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The earliest a follow-through day could occur is tomorrow. Ideally, one develops between Days 4 and 7, although valid follow-through days can occur later.
No bull market or major uptrend has ever begun without a preceding follow-through day. However, a follow-through day alone does not guarantee a sustained advance. The real test is the quality and breadth of leadership. A healthy uptrend requires several groups of institutional-quality growth stocks, preferably early in their cycles, to lead the way.
Despite the poor technical condition of the major indexes, a surprising number of sound setups are progressing across traditional growth sectors. However, these isolated pockets of strength should not be mistaken for healthy market leadership. With just 145 new highs versus 325 new lows today, most stocks are not participating.
The disconnect is unmistakable: select growth stocks are showing promise, but the broader market continues to deteriorate. Until participation broadens meaningfully, the foundation for a sustainable advance simply isn't there.
I remain 100% in cash. A follow-through day accompanied by broadening, healthy leadership would warrant a change in stance. Until then, I'll let the market earn my participation and keep following my rules. As Bill O’Neil famously said, “The market doesn't care what you think or how you feel, which is why you have to have rules!”
Stay patient, refine your watchlists, update your alerts, and be ready when conditions improve.
The major indexes have weakened further since the last report. Last Thursday, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 fell 5.52%, 4.36%, and 4.45%, respectively.
Friday’s feeble rally attempts quickly faded in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The Russell 2000 managed a brief rebound, but it lacked conviction and failed to make a meaningful dent in Thursday’s steep, heavy-volume decline, leaving the index under considerable technical pressure.
Market breadth remains deeply negative, with just 93 new highs versus 452 new lows on Friday. This weakness is reflected in traditional growth, where very few leaders are still forming sound bases. Outside of a handful of specialty retail and financial services stocks, the remaining constructive setups are concentrated in medical and healthcare, particularly biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and genomics.
The market is firmly back in correction mode, and most former leaders are in rough shape. I remain 100% in cash and will stay defensive until the major indexes begin to recover, and that improvement is confirmed by broad-based strength and a healthy expansion in growth-stock leadership. A rally attempt alone is not enough to justify risking capital.
For now, the priority is preparation, not participation. Refine your watchlists, update your alerts, and be ready to act when market conditions improve.