Interesting research @nkagan_official following up on your real-time unpacking of Kalshi market moves on Tues
1. Brier scores on Kalshi were lower (i.e. better) than all models at 9am of Election Day, when information is maximal and all modelers made their final calls. That’s when it matters most.View quoted post on X
2. Kalshi market calibration improves as harder-to-call races are added to the sample.
3. Even with lower volumes 3-months out, Kalshi markets rivaled professional forecaster projections.
