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Bloomberg’s estimate of YoY CPI
🔥No official U.S. CPI YoY number today — but we can still estimate it.
Because of the 2025 government shutdown, BLS never collected October 2025 CPI data, leaving it unable to calculate the usual year-over-year comparison for today’s release.
We backfilled the missing October 2025 observations with Bloomberg-derived estimates. On that basis, headline CPI is running at roughly 4.02% YoY in October, up from 3.74% in September.
The contribution breakdown is also notable:
• Core services: +2.06 percentage points
• Energy: +1.33 pp
• Food: +0.41 pp
• Core goods: +0.19 pp
That comes alongside the official October monthly readings of +0.4% headline and +0.3% core, both above consensus.
Methodology: Missing September 2025 weights are estimated by updating December 2024 weights for subsequent price changes, with the same weights used for October. Missing October 2025 index values are estimated as the geometric mean of September and November 2025.
These are Bloomberg-derived estimates, not official BLS figures.View quoted post on X
🍼 BABY FOOD AND FORMULA +5.1%
CPI for all items increases 0.4% in October; shelter rises #BLSData bls.gov/news.release/a…View quoted post on X
🫒Olives, pickles, relishes +2.5%
CPI for all items increases 0.4% in October; shelter rises #BLSData bls.gov/news.release/a…View quoted post on X
☕️ Roasted coffee -4.6%
CPI for all items increases 0.4% in October; shelter rises #BLSData bls.gov/news.release/a…View quoted post on X