Shahram Mossayebi, PhD

Joshua Landis Verified account @joshua_landis · Apr 7

“a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

By Steven Simon for @QuincyInst @RStatecraft

"Once a president speaks in those terms, accusations of genocidal threat cease to be fanciful or polemical. He has introduced them himself."

responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-genocide/

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Mehdi Yahyanejad Verified account @mehdiy_fa · Mar 17

I asked an activist in Iran on how he assesses the chances for people to take on the regime. This is his response:

-What is the potential for people to mobilize?

“I see people falling into three groups:

The first group is always at the front of any movement. These are the ones who show up first in every protest. Many of them are already ready to act right now.

The second group is the middle layer. They are more cautious. They are willing to take small risks and usually participated in previous movements as well. This group comes out only after assessing the situation. They need to feel that the conditions are right.

The third group mobilizes only when they see large crowds. They need to feel completely safe before joining.

The main problem is that not much time has passed since the January protests. The regime has also been constantly issuing threats. I feel there is now a gap between the first group and the rest.

Expecting that a simple call to protest will produce something like what happened in January is unrealistic. Almost everyone believes the regime will do whatever it takes to suppress it.

The solution, if the goal is to mobilize the second and third groups, is a strong signal. Something that creates a sense of advantage, safety, or that the regime’s end is truly near.

For example, something like the seizure of state television and broadcasting a nationwide message could go a long way in creating that signal.

Otherwise, the front line of protesters may end up in the streets without meaningful backing from the broader public.”

- What is the regime’s situation?

“What worries me more is a wounded monster that knows its end is coming. The regime appears weaker, but that can also make it more dangerous.

They are allowing more access to weapons for their forces. Plainclothes agents and Basij militias seem to have been given broader operational freedom. In some cases, the lower-level regime forces even appear more motivated than the senior leadership.

I think the regime’s strategy of “people against people” is approaching its final phase. At some point the regime will likely call all of its supporters into the streets.

I am almost certain that moment cannot be avoided. The regime’s final shield will be its social base and the many small beneficiaries of the system.”

- How much damage has been done to the regime?

“As for regime casualties, it is difficult to estimate them precisely. But judging from their behavior, it seems that a significant portion of the official repression forces have already been lost.

Operations in smaller cities will likely be much easier. But holding and controlling those areas will require organization.

Tehran is a different story. Even if they have to use human shields, they will not give up Tehran easily.”

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Liz Webster Verified account @LizWebsterSBF · Apr 26, 2024

Mark Carney is right to declare that Brexiteers destroyed Britain’s future at Canada 2020’s economic lookahead dinner in Toronto last Monday.

“Some right-wing populists see current anxieties as an opportunity to stoke anger because anger is what’s necessary for their project. After all, people don’t demolish things when htey are positive or optimistic.

“I know this from my time in the UK, where for years the rallying cry of Brexiteers has broken Britain, and their solution to take back control was actually code for tear down your future.”

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