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Why are the 2020s a dark age for "Tier 2" rugby?
At the current moment the gulf between "Tier 1" nations and "Tier 2" nations is the widest it has been in 20 years.
馃嚰馃嚫 Samoa & 馃嚬馃嚧 Tonga between 2010 and 2015 had a relatively successful period. In 28 games vs "Tier 1" nations over those years they had an average score of 17-26. This period included Samoa wins over Australia, Wales, Scotland, Italy, and a very credible 16-25 loss to an all time great All Black team, whilst Tonga beat France & Italy.
Both Unions are basket cases though, and although Samoa for a year up to and including RWC 2023 have a very good team which briefly got them better results, the overall picture has been grim. In 14 games vs "Tier 1" in the 2020s these two nations have an average score of 13-46 (and if not for Samoa 2023 that looks worse). Both have hit all time ranking lows this year and Samoa shockingly nearly didn't even qualify for the RWC next year.
馃嚭馃嚫 USA in the 2010s in 12 matches vs Six Nations opposition had an average score of 14-33. This included a win over Scotland, a tight 12-15 loss to Ireland, and were only 9-12 down to France at 65 minutes at RWC 2019. In the 2020s the average vs Six Nations opposition has been 10-56. The most recent match being an 85-0 humiliation vs Scotland last November. That this side is ranked as high as 14th is not a positive sign for the sport as they are probably the worst 14th ranked side in a long time.
馃嚚馃嚘 Canada between 2009-2015 under Kieran Crowley had an average score of 15-33 in 9 matches vs Six Nations opposition and were unlucky not to take scalps of Scotland in 2014 or Italy in 2015. In the Kingsley Jones era between 2017 to 2024 the average in his 5 games vs Six Nations opposition was 11-61 as the side suffered a calamitous era and missed out on RWC 2023.
馃嚪馃嚧 Romania at RWC 2015 had an average score of 14-38 in 3 games vs "Tier 1", in 2021 they pushed Argentina very close in a game that was tied past 70 minutes, by RWC 2023 they had an average score of 3-81 playing against "Tier 1". Their youth results are even more tragic and so they have now had to basically recruit the bulk of their team from overseas to remain in a 24 team RWC.
Other declines have been more recent. 馃嚨馃嚬 Portugal has not been able to maintain the levels they reached at their 2021-23 peak. 馃嚭馃嚲 Uruguay who also had a positive 2023 tournament has recently suffered problems. 馃嚞馃嚜 Georgia are the best team outside the Nations Championship, but have gotten stuck, and not performing at the level they can beat "Tier 1" sides which they did twice in 2022.
Even 馃嚝馃嚡 Fiji, who have had been doing well and had the luck to be in the Nations Championship, recently suffered a forgettable set of July games which included the largest score they have conceded in 21 years in a 73-8 loss vs England a team they beat only 3 years prior.
There are some better stories. 馃嚚馃嚤 Chile has risen from an awful 2010s to be one of the sport's biggest improvers. 馃嚳馃嚰 Zimbabwe are returning to the RWC after a 36 year absence. These are however stories of sides improving only from very low bases.
In terms of the regular "Tier 2" RWC nations. Nearly all are in a worse position relative to "Tier 1" than they were 3-4 years ago, or 10 years ago in case of North America or Samoa & Tonga whose struggles started a bit earlier.
If you watch "Tier 2" matches such as those in the Nations Cup you can see plainly the standard of play has gotten far worse relative to "Tier 1" than it was in the 2010s or even up to RWC 2023. But the question is why? In my view, it is a combination of things that have all happened together at the same time to create a bigger effect.
1. "Tier 1" has gotten collectively stronger. In previous times there may have been 3-4 sides at the bottom end of Tier 1 who weren't as strong. Scotland in the 2000s or mid 2010s did not have the players they have now. Italy were poor up until the last 4 years or so. Ireland have just had their strongest ever era. France and South Africa have a great generation of players. 10 years ago the All Blacks were at the top of the rugby mountain and set the standard. Now they have company there from 3-4 other sides and also 3-4 others not as far off as they were.
2. World Rugby has reduced funding for "Tier 2" development in this cycle. This really is quite simple. It is harder to compete as inequality in funding compared to "Tier 1" nations has increased. Tier 1 nations complained they were not getting as much from RWC revenue as they wanted, and as Tier 1 essentially controls WR in terms of voting power, they get what they want.
3. The sport has got much higher scoring. Try counts have gotten inflated in recent years to an unprecedented level as attack dominates with ball skills improved amongst forwards and areas such as maul and close carrying in the 22 becoming refereed more favourably to the attack. This has a negative impact on underdog teams for whom it is harder to stick in games for long and exacerbates the potential size of blowout results. The highest pts in a game any side conceded at RWC 2015 was 65. That is utterly implausible now as for the first time at a RWC since 2007 100 pt games are back as a possibility and not just due to the expansion. Even a match like the Super Rugby final can get a scoreline of 60-5 now.
4. Tier 2 sides are behind on innovation. As the game evolves, a team at a lower level is far less likely to be at the cutting edge of cultural evolution trends in the best tactics and training methods as those at the very highest levels. So thus are playing catch up. Tier 2 sides do not play sufficient games to adapt and experiment with plans to come up with tactics to combat Tier 1 sides.
5. Fewer professional opportunities at the top level. Amateurs cannot easily compete with top level pros. In this area notably English club rugby has cut opportunities for "Tier 2" int'ls from what they once were. Samoa and Tonga used to have far more players in the Prem and Canada in the Champ. So teams have fewer players with experience of playing at a higher level.
So what can be done? It is not easy especially with funding cuts, and a new int'l structure that is awful for those outside the Nations Championship, but the important thing to understand that this is a major problem to be solved, nobody wants to see sides performing poorly at the RWC next year, but the reaction should NOT be to give up on and kick some Tier 2 sides out of the RWC which would only make the issues worse. The correct reaction is to heavily criticise and put pressure on WR for overseeing a decline to a dark age for Tier 2 rugby and likely worse scores at next year's RWC.
Hopefully those sides getting more time together in training camp to prepare will help mitigate and reduce some of the thrashings against Tier 1 next year. But at the moment, Tier 2 rugby overall is in a worse place than it was at this same point in the cycle 4 years ago, so things do not look very optimistic and it is important to be honest about that in order to best understand and address the problems (and in Tier 3 rugby for sides outside the RWC the situation is maybe as bad and inactive as any time as in the last 40 years but that is getting on to a slightly different topic).
At the current moment the gulf between "Tier 1" nations and "Tier 2" nations is the widest it has been in 20 years.
馃嚰馃嚫 Samoa & 馃嚬馃嚧 Tonga between 2010 and 2015 had a relatively successful period. In 28 games vs "Tier 1" nations over those years they had an average score of 17-26. This period included Samoa wins over Australia, Wales, Scotland, Italy, and a very credible 16-25 loss to an all time great All Black team, whilst Tonga beat France & Italy.
Both Unions are basket cases though, and although Samoa for a year up to and including RWC 2023 have a very good team which briefly got them better results, the overall picture has been grim. In 14 games vs "Tier 1" in the 2020s these two nations have an average score of 13-46 (and if not for Samoa 2023 that looks worse). Both have hit all time ranking lows this year and Samoa shockingly nearly didn't even qualify for the RWC next year.
馃嚭馃嚫 USA in the 2010s in 12 matches vs Six Nations opposition had an average score of 14-33. This included a win over Scotland, a tight 12-15 loss to Ireland, and were only 9-12 down to France at 65 minutes at RWC 2019. In the 2020s the average vs Six Nations opposition has been 10-56. The most recent match being an 85-0 humiliation vs Scotland last November. That this side is ranked as high as 14th is not a positive sign for the sport as they are probably the worst 14th ranked side in a long time.
馃嚚馃嚘 Canada between 2009-2015 under Kieran Crowley had an average score of 15-33 in 9 matches vs Six Nations opposition and were unlucky not to take scalps of Scotland in 2014 or Italy in 2015. In the Kingsley Jones era between 2017 to 2024 the average in his 5 games vs Six Nations opposition was 11-61 as the side suffered a calamitous era and missed out on RWC 2023.
馃嚪馃嚧 Romania at RWC 2015 had an average score of 14-38 in 3 games vs "Tier 1", in 2021 they pushed Argentina very close in a game that was tied past 70 minutes, by RWC 2023 they had an average score of 3-81 playing against "Tier 1". Their youth results are even more tragic and so they have now had to basically recruit the bulk of their team from overseas to remain in a 24 team RWC.
Other declines have been more recent. 馃嚨馃嚬 Portugal has not been able to maintain the levels they reached at their 2021-23 peak. 馃嚭馃嚲 Uruguay who also had a positive 2023 tournament has recently suffered problems. 馃嚞馃嚜 Georgia are the best team outside the Nations Championship, but have gotten stuck, and not performing at the level they can beat "Tier 1" sides which they did twice in 2022.
Even 馃嚝馃嚡 Fiji, who have had been doing well and had the luck to be in the Nations Championship, recently suffered a forgettable set of July games which included the largest score they have conceded in 21 years in a 73-8 loss vs England a team they beat only 3 years prior.
There are some better stories. 馃嚚馃嚤 Chile has risen from an awful 2010s to be one of the sport's biggest improvers. 馃嚳馃嚰 Zimbabwe are returning to the RWC after a 36 year absence. These are however stories of sides improving only from very low bases.
In terms of the regular "Tier 2" RWC nations. Nearly all are in a worse position relative to "Tier 1" than they were 3-4 years ago, or 10 years ago in case of North America or Samoa & Tonga whose struggles started a bit earlier.
If you watch "Tier 2" matches such as those in the Nations Cup you can see plainly the standard of play has gotten far worse relative to "Tier 1" than it was in the 2010s or even up to RWC 2023. But the question is why? In my view, it is a combination of things that have all happened together at the same time to create a bigger effect.
1. "Tier 1" has gotten collectively stronger. In previous times there may have been 3-4 sides at the bottom end of Tier 1 who weren't as strong. Scotland in the 2000s or mid 2010s did not have the players they have now. Italy were poor up until the last 4 years or so. Ireland have just had their strongest ever era. France and South Africa have a great generation of players. 10 years ago the All Blacks were at the top of the rugby mountain and set the standard. Now they have company there from 3-4 other sides and also 3-4 others not as far off as they were.
2. World Rugby has reduced funding for "Tier 2" development in this cycle. This really is quite simple. It is harder to compete as inequality in funding compared to "Tier 1" nations has increased. Tier 1 nations complained they were not getting as much from RWC revenue as they wanted, and as Tier 1 essentially controls WR in terms of voting power, they get what they want.
3. The sport has got much higher scoring. Try counts have gotten inflated in recent years to an unprecedented level as attack dominates with ball skills improved amongst forwards and areas such as maul and close carrying in the 22 becoming refereed more favourably to the attack. This has a negative impact on underdog teams for whom it is harder to stick in games for long and exacerbates the potential size of blowout results. The highest pts in a game any side conceded at RWC 2015 was 65. That is utterly implausible now as for the first time at a RWC since 2007 100 pt games are back as a possibility and not just due to the expansion. Even a match like the Super Rugby final can get a scoreline of 60-5 now.
4. Tier 2 sides are behind on innovation. As the game evolves, a team at a lower level is far less likely to be at the cutting edge of cultural evolution trends in the best tactics and training methods as those at the very highest levels. So thus are playing catch up. Tier 2 sides do not play sufficient games to adapt and experiment with plans to come up with tactics to combat Tier 1 sides.
5. Fewer professional opportunities at the top level. Amateurs cannot easily compete with top level pros. In this area notably English club rugby has cut opportunities for "Tier 2" int'ls from what they once were. Samoa and Tonga used to have far more players in the Prem and Canada in the Champ. So teams have fewer players with experience of playing at a higher level.
So what can be done? It is not easy especially with funding cuts, and a new int'l structure that is awful for those outside the Nations Championship, but the important thing to understand that this is a major problem to be solved, nobody wants to see sides performing poorly at the RWC next year, but the reaction should NOT be to give up on and kick some Tier 2 sides out of the RWC which would only make the issues worse. The correct reaction is to heavily criticise and put pressure on WR for overseeing a decline to a dark age for Tier 2 rugby and likely worse scores at next year's RWC.
Hopefully those sides getting more time together in training camp to prepare will help mitigate and reduce some of the thrashings against Tier 1 next year. But at the moment, Tier 2 rugby overall is in a worse place than it was at this same point in the cycle 4 years ago, so things do not look very optimistic and it is important to be honest about that in order to best understand and address the problems (and in Tier 3 rugby for sides outside the RWC the situation is maybe as bad and inactive as any time as in the last 40 years but that is getting on to a slightly different topic).
